Energy

Complete U-turn for petrol prices in November

Staff Writer

 ·23 Oct 2026

Petrol and diesel price recoveries are still deep in the red for November, but the temporary cuts to the fuel levy are finally set to bring some small relief at the pumps.

The latest data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) for the end of the third week in October shows petrol and diesel prices at a similar under-recovery.

Petrol prices show an under-recovery between -R1.27 and -R1.38 per litre, and diesel prices are at -R1.24 and -R1.29 per litre.

Typically, these figures, if sustained to the month-end, would lead to petrol and diesel price hikes in the new month.

However, a R1.50- and R3.00-per-litre cut to petrol and diesel fuel levies in November should flip this to a small cut.

This follows the announcement by Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana this week that the National Treasury will be giving R10 billion in fuel price relief over the next two months.

As part of the package, the fuel levy will be temporarily cut by R1.50 per litre for petrol and R3.00 per litre for diesel in November, then drop to R1.00 per litre for petrol and R1.50 per litre for diesel in December.

The table below outlines how the relief has changed the picture:

The U-turn in fortunes does come with a caveat, however.

Firstly, the CEF’s daily snapshots are not predictive; they are just indicators of current market conditions and do not include other adjustments, such as the slate levy.

For petrol, the margin between a cut and a hike is very slim—just 12-23 cents per litre—meaning any material deterioration (weaker rand, higher oil price) in the markets, or a sizeable hike in the slate levy, could put prices back in the red.

For global oil prices, the forecast is bleak, with oil climbing to almost $115 a barrel this week amid growing tensions in the Middle East.

The rand, meanwhile, remains on the back foot around R16.50 to the dollar as risk aversion sticks.

Secondly, while any potential cut to petrol prices is a relief, the projections for November are marginal, and barely make a dent in the massive hikes experienced this year.

Petrol prices have increased by over R10 a litre since February, and diesel prices have climbed by almost R15 per litre over the same period. The relief will not reverse this.

The projected cuts coming in November for petrol 95 are also not enough to bring prices below R30 per litre—despite avoiding a new record high.

Post-Iran War price adjustments

But the good news is still there

Despite the small cut—and even if there is a marginal increase in petrol prices in November—the fuel price relief from Treasury is still a welcome sight.

This is because the relief has materially changed the inflation outlook heading towards the end of the year, and could shift the tone on interest rates.

Ahead of Godongwana’s announcement, Nedbank’s CPI review for the month red-flagged rising fuel prices.

CPI for September came in cooler than expected at 4.7% y/y, but was still higher than August. The rise was driven by higher fuel costs.

After October’s massive fuel price hike, a higher inflation reading for the month is all but guaranteed.

Before the announcement of price relief, Nedbank had forecast inflation peaking at 6.4% in November, based on the R1.50 per litre price hike that was building for the month.

This, the bank said, would have likely prompted the South African Reserve Bank to hike interest rates once again in November, in its push to contain inflation and get it back to the 3% target.

Following the relief announcement, however, Nedbank reassessed the forecast and pulled it back significantly.

The bank now expects inflation to peak in October, at 5.7%.

“Thereafter, we see inflation receding faster than previously anticipated,” it said.

“Under the revised forecast, headline inflation declines to 3% by the end of the third quarter of 2027, reaching this milestone one quarter earlier than in our previous forecast.”

The bank has also revised its annual inflation forecast downward, now seeing inflation averaging 4.4% in 2026, down from 4.5%, and 3.6% in 2027, down from 4.1%.