Business Talk – Dr Frans Cronje on what illicit trade means for South Africa’s future

 ·29 Oct 2026

In this Business Talk with Michael Avery interview, Dr Frans Cronje discusses how organized crime and illicit economic activity are exploiting weaknesses in the South African state.

Cronje is an Independent Political Analyst and Scenario Planner who runs the advisory firm Frans Cronje Private Clients.

He built up nearly two decades of experience working for Africa’s oldest research and policy think-tank and established that organisation’s risk advisory consultancy.

Cronje has analysed and reported on subjects including public opinion polling, education trends, growth forecasts, currency estimates, security risks, global trade wars, presidential elections, and much more.

He has also authored three best-seller list books, and taught scenario-based strategy to the MBA program of a top South African business school.

The interview

In this Business Talk interview, Cronje discusses the implications of illicit trade on South Africa’s future.

He unpacks how parallel economies can erode the authority of the state across areas such as tax collection, organized crime, and border control.

Cronje then delves into the question of whether illicit trade is a symptom or a cause of state weakness, and discusses the long-term risks illicit trade poses, including threats to South Africa’s sovereignty and national security.

He covers the different types of illicit economies in South Africa, including political funding, tobacco, mining, and organized crime.

Cronje concludes the discussion by explaining how South Africa can fight back against illicit trade.

Watch the full interview with Frans Cronje, below.

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