Big turn for Eskom and load shedding – but not without help
Power utility Eskom has managed to keep its breakdowns in check this past week, which has allowed it to suspend load shedding for extended periods of time – but it hasn’t been without help.
While breakdowns have dropped below 12,000MW of capacity in recent days, the latest blackout statistics compiled by independent energy analyst Pieter Jordaan shows that a significant drop in demand has played a big role – as well as the burning of diesel to meet evening peaks.
In fact, Jordaan said, Eskom has turned to its open cycle gas turbines once again after nearly two weeks of keeping the OCGTs at arm’s length.
“Eskom’s production data shows that it needed to open the diesel taps again from Wednesday onwards, er a hiatus of almost a fortnight,” he said.
“The latest data also showed that, on Friday, it drew down its pumped hydro reserves to below 33% and needed to maintain hourly OCGT utilisation above 50% from 16h00 to 23h00. The significant peaking defence was mounted against a mild average evening peak of 25.8 GW, lasting from 19h00 to 20h00.”
Regardless, Eskom managed to keep its breakdowns in check, to the relief of most South Africans.
“A bonus public holiday on Friday contributed to an early drop-off in seasonal demand which helped the power utility to keep the lights on for longer,” Jordaan said.
Eskom announced on Sunday that it would keep load shedding suspended until further notice, with the next big update expected only on Friday again.
The load shedding suspension means that blackout hours are currently moving far below the trend line and the country will likely avoid the projections forecast at the start of the year.
It is currently expected that South Africans will end the year having experienced a cumulative 75.6 days, or 1,814 blackout hours (time in the dark). While this is far higher than any year before, it is below the 80-day mark.
Looking at the general power trends, the weekly blackout trend continued its retreat this week, dropping 12.8 points to 5.4%, on the back of much reduced demand.
The quarterly blackout trend echoed the week’s blackout improvement, softening 1.8 points to 12.2%.
The annual blackout trend, meanwhile, dipped by 0.6 points to end below the stage 3-mark at 20.7%. It is the first time since Saturday, 5 August that it has broken below stage 3.
According to Jordaan, the lower demand and lower levels of breakdowns has allowed the national utility to boost its maintenance, and for the first time since August 2021, there was almost as much planned maintenance happening (9,900MW) as outages (10,300MW).
Looking at the overall trend, the data shows a significant turn for Eskom and load shedding, with all three trend lines heading downward.
Most notably, the quarterly trend (91-day load shedding average) is at the lowest point in a year, and far from the highest point reached in March 2023.
the annual trend is still relatively high, but falling from the highest level seen in September. Meanwhile, the weekly average (5.4%) is significantly lower than the peak of 40.9% seen in March.
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