Eskom celebrates despite missing targets that caused load-shedding

Eskom celebrated its excellent performance, despite missing its own targets by a considerable margin, which means that South Africans will have to endure load-shedding for longer.

Over the last three years, Eskom has repeatedly published its target of reaching an energy availability factor (EAF) of 70%, which would end load-shedding.

The energy availability factor (EAF) represents the percentage of time the power station was available for use when needed, serving as a core measure of performance.

Eskom stated that if its EAF improved to around 70%, load-shedding would be a thing of the past, and South Africa would achieve electricity security.

In October 2022, the Eskom board and former Public Enterprises Minister Pravin Gordhan unveiled its EAF targets for the next three years.

They set an energy availability factor target of 60% by March 2023, 65% by March 2024, and 70% by March 2025.

On 22 January 2023, former Eskom chair Mpho Makwana said they had embarked on a turnaround journey to improve plant performance and reduce load-shedding.

“It will take at least two years to improve the energy availability factor from the current 58% to 70%,” Makwana said at the time.

In October 2024, Eskom reiterated that it remains focused on achieving financial and operational sustainability by implementing ongoing structural improvements.

“The target is to reach a 70% EAF by March 2025, which will not only ensure a stable energy supply but also reduce diesel expenditure,” it said.

Eskom Chairman Mteto Nyati also stated that their Generation Recovery Plan would be completed by 31 March 2025, marking the end of load shedding.

“At the end of March 2025, that’s when the plan should have been executed,” Nyati said earlier this year.

“At the end of that plan is when we can come back, the Minister, myself, and the CEO, and communicate to South Africa that there’s not going to be load-shedding.”

These were clear targets for Eskom and its leadership team, which was easy for South Africans to track and see whether the power utility met them.

Eskom missed its own targets by a large margin

Eskom’s March 2025 deadline to complete its Generation Recovery Plan and reach its 70% EAF target has arrived. However, it missed both targets.

Eskom announced that the year-to-date energy availability factor (EAF) is 56.43%, down slightly from 58.30% during the same period last year.

This indicates that it had not even met the first planned target for March 2023, which was a 60% energy availability factor.

This means that load-shedding remains a reality in South Africa and can occur at short notice, as recent weeks have demonstrated.

Eskom also did not conclude its Generation Recovery Plan by 31 March 2025 as initially scheduled. Several key projects are still underway.

These include the return to service of Medupi Unit 4, the restoration of Kusile Unit 1, the return of Koeberg Unit1, and the commercial operation of Kusile Unit 6.

Collectively, these projects will increase available generation capacity by approximately 2 500MW, a significant milestone toward system recovery.

“Any formal announcement on the end of load-shedding will only follow once the power system demonstrates consistent, long-term stability,” Eskom said.

During Eskom’s 2025 Winter Outlook briefing, Nyati admitted that the power utility did not meet expectations.

“We have not been proud of how we have performed. A few metrics showed that things did not align with what we were capable of doing,” he said.

The problems included power plant reliability, a delay in returning generation units to service, and issues with its coal supply.

He said the Eskom board and executive team discussed the problems. “We spend a lot of time establishing the root causes of the problems,” he said.

They have learned that Eskom does not have equipment issues. Instead, the problems centre around its employees.

“It is mainly leadership-related. We have to make sure they follow standard operating procedures and we hold people accountable,” he said.

The table and charts below display Eskom’s official EAF targets and its performance against these targets.

Eskom celebrates despite missed targets

Eskom chairman Mteto Nyati said South Africa was regressing because, as a society, we tolerate poor leadership in schools, universities, clinics, hospitals, municipalities and SOEs.

“Instead of holding our leaders accountable, we worship them. Respect must be earned,” Nyati said in a post on X.

He reiterated the call during Eskom’s 2025 Winter Outlook briefing, saying leaders have to be held accountable for poor performance.

One would assume that Nyati and the rest of the Eskom board would be deeply disappointed by their poor performance and act on their call to hold leadership accountable.

Surprisingly, this was not the case. Instead of Eskom’s leadership facing the music for the missed targets, Nyati said they were celebrating their success.

Nyati told MyBroadband that the Eskom board’s targets were aimed at to improve operational performance year on year and also stretch the team to reach beyond their reach.

“In the last financial year, Eskom has significantly improved year on year across operational, financial and sustainability metrics,” Nyati told MyBroadband.

“The fact that they missed some stretch targets does not mean that they have performed poorly,” he added.

He said Eskom’s leadership may lose some performance-based incentives, but is being celebrated internally for positioning Eskom in a much better place.

“It is a process of continuous improvement. As a board, we are proud of what Eskom management has achieved in the last financial year,” he said.

“For the first time in years, Eskom will post a profit on the back of an improved operational performance, i.e. reduced loadshedding and diesel usage. That is a major step forward.”

Interestingly, this appears to be in stark contrast to Nyati’s call for holding leaders at state-owned enterprises accountable.

If leadership is celebrated despite missing concrete targets, it sends a message that they will not be held to these targets. Therefore, missing them is acceptable.

Over the past two decades, every Eskom CEO has claimed that they performed exceptionally well, while many missed their performance targets.

This behaviour is now perpetuated until the new Eskom board and management team, which does not bode well for the power utility.