Fuel price nightmare for South Africa as increases hit R10 per litre for next week
Petrol and diesel price under-recoveries have continued to surge in South Africa, with diesel breaching R10 per litre for the first time in history, and petrol moving towards R6 per litre.
The latest data from the Central Energy Fund for the end of the fourth week of March shows that motorists are in for severe pain at the pumps if the government does not intervene.
And with fuel price adjustments coming in less than a week, time is running out.
According to the CEF, the under-recovery in petrol prices has now reached between R5.24 and R5.76 per litre. Diesel, meanwhile, has worsened to between R9.86 and R10.00 per litre.
Those reliant on illuminating paraffin are the worst off, with under-recoveries now amounting to R11.46 per litre.
These are the projected levels at 25 March 2026:
- Petrol 93: increase of R5.24 per litre
- Petrol 95: increase of R5.76 per litre
- Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): increase of R9.86 per litre
- Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): increase of R10.00 per litre
- Illuminating paraffin: increase of R11.46 per litre
The projected price hikes for next Wednesday, 1 April, mark the single largest increases to fuel prices in South Africa’s history.
The R10 per litre increase on the cards for diesel would also push per litre prices for the fuel to the highest they have ever been.
The highest per-litre diesel price was recorded at R25.53 in July 2022. At the current trajectory, a R10.00 price hike would push the price of 0.005% diesel to R28.60 per litre.
For petrol drivers, while a R5.76 per litre increase would be the single biggest jump in prices on record, the resultant pump price for Petrol 95 would still be lower than its record high of R26.74 per litre in July 2022.
At current recovery levels, April pricing would be at R26.06 per litre.
Notably, these prices exclude the 21 cents per litre tax hike that is also scheduled to kick in from 1 April. But even with the tax included, the R26.27 petrol price would still be 47 cents off the record.
Without any government intervention, this is how the price changes are expected to reflect at the pumps, including and excluding the 21-cent-per-litre tax hikes.
| Inland | March Official | April Expected (excl. tax hike) | April Expected (incl. 21cpl tax hike) |
| 93 Petrol | R20.19 | R25.43 | R25.64 |
| 95 Petrol | R20.30 | R26.06 | R26.27 |
| Diesel 0.05% (wholesale) | R18.53 | R28.39 | R28.60 |
| Diesel 0.005% (wholesale) | R18.60 | R28.60 | R28.81 |
| Illuminating Paraffin | R12.54 | R24.00 | – |
| Coastal | March Official | April Expected (excl. tax hike) | April Expected (incl. 21cpl tax hike) |
| 93 Petrol | R19.40 | R25.16 | R25.37 |
| 95 Petrol | R19.47 | R25.23 | R25.44 |
| Diesel 0.05% (wholesale) | R17.70 | R27.56 | R27.77 |
| Diesel 0.005% (wholesale) | R17.84 | R27.84 | R28.05 |
| Illuminating Paraffin | R11.52 | R22.98 | – |
While the figures above reflect the CEF’s daily fuel recovery numbers, last-minute changes could still kick in, with the government working on a plan to intervene in some capacity.
Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana revealed in the National Assembly on Wednesday, 25 March, that a Cabinet committee has been established to consider what the government can do to respond to rising fuel costs.
The committee includes Godongwana, the Minister of Mineral and Petroleum Resources, Gwede Mantashe, and the Electricity Minister, Kgosientsho Ramokgopa.
However, it is unclear whether the committee will consider immediate and price-related interventions—such as those initiated in 2022—or whether they would be after the fact.
There are also questions about whether the committee can do anything before the expected price hikes take effect in a week’s time.
The National Treasury stated earlier this month that there is little room for the government to step in and provide immediate relief from the looming hikes.
It added that any intervention would likely be temporary, limited, and funded within the existing fiscal framework.
Treasury director-general Duncan Pieterse told Bloomberg that cushioning the impact of higher fuel prices would cost the government millions—money it simply does not have readily available.
“Unless you have those kinds of resources—which currently we do not have available as part of our fiscal buffers—you are either looking at no relief, or you’re looking at a very small amount of relief,” he said.