Another positive sign for South Africa’s economy
The latest PayInc Economic Index points to a continued positive trajectory for South Africa, with the economy showing resilience despite a year of challenges.
After six months of consecutive gains, the index, which measures the value of all electronic transactions processed through PayInc, levelled off in November 2025.
However, it is still tracking higher than a year ago, the group said, which shows continued resilience and improving economic indicators.
The index held steady at 103.1 in November, unchanged from October.
Despite the pause, the index is still 3.5% higher in November 2024 and has grown by an average of 2.9% year-to-date, nearly double the 1.5% registered in 2024.
After reaching an all-time high of 188.9 million in October, the number of transactions cleared through PayInc in November subsided to 179.9 million but was still up by 8.1% on a year ago.
Volume declines were recorded across all payment streams except PayShap.
The cash supply to banks, now also included in the PayInc Economic Index, moderated in November, while the nominal value of electronic transactions also slowed to R1.37 trillion in November compared to R1.46 trillion in October 2025.
“The latest figures confirm the economy’s resilience despite ongoing challenges and uncertainties; a trend also reflected in the third-quarter GDP growth numbers,” the group said.
Independent economist, Elize Kruger, pointed to a long list of positive economic developments throughout 2025, which have put South Africa on a better trajectory.
This includes South Africa being taken off the Financial Action Task Force’s grey list, the country getting its first credit rating upgrade in decades, and a host of reforms and improvements in the budget.
Kruger said that, while it will take time for these developments to truly translate to a higher economic growth trajectory, the foundations are being laid.
“At a company level, when management starts to believe that the tide has turned for the better, improved confidence levels will drive investment decisions, which in time will contribute to higher growth rates,” said Kruger.
“Likewise, if household confidence increases, driven by multiple years of real earnings growth, a softer inflation environment, lower interest rates and a belief that the economy is on the mend, it will boost consumer spending.”
This is especially true for expenditure on higher-value items such as cars and housing, which are typically done on a longer-term credit commitment.
Many signs pointing up for South Africa
Kruger and PayInc pointed to several key data points that are all contributing to the theme of resilience and improvement in the economy.
Various confidence indices have started to move in a positive direction.
Following two consecutive declines, the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index rose by five points to 44 in Q4 2025.
The FNB/BER Building Confidence Index rose to a joint 10-year high of 43 in Q4 2025. The confidence among new vehicle dealers increased to an index level of 58, the highest since 2021. Retail and wholesale trade confidence indicators both improved in Q4 to 43 and 42, respectively.
On the consumer front, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) recovered from -13 in Q3 2025 to -9 in Q4.
“Cumulatively, and over time, higher confidence levels will support higher economic activity levels,” the group said.
However, it said that the positives need to be tempered by the reality that South Africa is still in challenging territory and not everything is being swept up in the wave of optimism.
Notably, other economic indicators were mixed during November.
According to Naamsa, total vehicle sales improved by 12.5% y/y in November with year-to-date sales up by 15.4% compared to a year earlier, while new car sales in November grew by 11.0% and year-to-date were still 20.1% ahead.
However, the S&P Global South Africa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) remained in contractionary territory with a 49.0 index level in November.
The seasonally adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index dropped by a steep 7.2 index points to 42.0 in November 2025, from 49.2 in October.
“The manufacturing sector’s performance remains under pressure, with demand generally sluggish, complicated by the rise in US trade tariffs and logistical challenges,” PayInc noted.
Kruger said that, while it is still early days, and recognising that confidence takes time to translate into higher activity, the emerging trends are positive.
“It is often said that a notable improvement in confidence in an economy is by far the cheapest form of economic stimulus,” she said.
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