Best-case vs worst-case scenario for South Africa under Zuma: analyst
President Jacob Zuma is playing the long game in his ultimate plan for South Africa -which leaves the country with an uncertain future, and some potentially worrying outcomes.
This is according to a short- medium- and long-term outlook report by Nomura, which lays out the various paths South Africa could take over the next few years, on the backdrop of the recent swings in the country’s political space.
Nomura research analyst, Peter Attard Montalto said that the group’s baseline view is that, in the short- and medium- terms, South Africa is likely to ‘bumble along’ on its low-growth trajectory, and Zuma secures his control over state organs to ensure he can keep feeding his patronage machine.
While a lot of focus is placed on National Treasury, the president’s influence will likely encompass all arms of the state, including the judiciary, parliament, security services, other ministries and state-owned companies.
“There is a serious and considered strategy being undertaken by the President who is a master at playing the ANC at its own collectivist game,” the analyst said.
“The strategy here is long, and goes through the elective conference and a win by Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma – and we should consider her as a more left-wing, ideological version of the status quo, not some clean break.
“While in 2019 the ANC is certainly at risk of losing power and majority control, we continue to say that it’s far from obvious this is a done deal, especially with a new ANC President (who is possibly already President of the country into the election).”
In the longer-term, this paints an uncertain future for South Africa – with the analyst pointing to a best-case and worst-case scenario, given the current sociopolitical reality of the country:
The best-case scenario
In a more optimistic scenario, Attard Montalto says that things could get to a point where the ANC splits – where a new party (probably led by the SACP and other anti-Zuma ANC members) could attain about 5% of the vote, which could be used in a coalition government to push the ANC out of its current style of politics.
“A small ANC breakaway party that gives up on the main party could form that fights the 2019 elections and maybe gets only 5% of the vote…and can act as a stabilising factor in coalition with the ANC after 2019. ANC is dragged to a low-corruption, more reformist place,” the analyst said.
“The death of ‘South African exceptionalism’ would also bring more realism, activism and shift in policy debate.”
The worst-case scenario
However, the dimmer view would see the Zuma faction infecting government with authoritarian tendencies, ignoring courts and pushing a ‘radical transformation’ agenda that ignores property rights and the Constitution.
“Violence could increase around repeated protest action for a Zuma recall, and ANC structures like the ANC Youth League and MK Veterans could become more militant,” Attard Montalto said.
The analyst said that the ANC would likely not give up power if it were to lose to an opposition coalition in 2019, and Rule by decree (a single person or group creating arbitrary rules and laws without approval or oversight) could be implemented locally and nationally.
This is the type of governance most commonly used by dictators.
Despite these contrasting potential outcomes, Attard Montalto sees the middle-ground as the most likely end to this particular story.
“While the recent cabinet reshuffle may be an indication of a subtle shift, actually it can move in chaotic and unpredictable ways – for better or worse. In the long run we still believe in the status quo bumble along scenario,” he said.
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