South Africa heading for social unrest disaster

A former South African state security boss has warned that the mix of the country’s high unemployment rate and poor governance could lead to social unrest similar to that experienced during the July riots in 2021. 

The former head of the State Security Agency (SSA), Thulani Dlomo, issued this warning at a seminar on the country’s political and economic climate in Durban on Thursday, 24 April.

The State Security Agency (SSA) in South Africa is the primary civilian intelligence agency, responsible for collecting, analysing, and disseminating intelligence related to national security.

During the seminar, Dlomo was asked whether South Africa would experience another civil uprising similar to the July 2021 riots. 

The July 2021 riots in South Africa were characterised by widespread looting, violence, and destruction, primarily in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng provinces. 

The unrest followed the imprisonment of former President Jacob Zuma and was fueled by underlying socio-economic tensions, including high unemployment and inequality.

Following the protests, the then-acting Minister in the Presidency, Khumbudzo Ntshavheni, cited SAPOA estimates that the unrest had cost South Africa’s national economy approximately R50 billion.

Responding to the question, Dlomo said there is absolutely the possibility of another civil unrest on similar proportions. 

Dlomo explained that the dangerous mix of high unemployment, especially youth unemployment, and poor governance and service delivery is a recipe for disaster. 

“Despite experts and leaders having sounded the alarm about the potential consequences of these challenges, the country was ignoring the signs and struggling to address its problems,” he said. 

He added that these two issues in South Africa are an internal crisis, which is a recipe for a catastrophe in the country.

Dlomo also stressed that South Africa was not taking the possibility of experiencing instability similar to that seen in Mozambique at the end of last year seriously. 

Mozambique was hit with violent protests following the presidential elections, as voters claimed election fraud.

However, several experts noted that the level of unrest was spurred on by long-standing socio-economic ills, leading to around 300 people dead and hundreds of businesses looted.

South Africa’s dangerous mix

Dlomo said that South Africa would face similar unrest if its unemployment rate and service delivery continued as they were. 

According to Stats SA’s latest Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS), South Africa’s unemployment rate is 31.9%, the highest in the world. 

However, the situation becomes even more dire when considering the expanded definition of unemployment, which includes discouraged job seekers.

The report showed that the country’s unemployment rate increased to 41.9% when discouraged workers are included. 

Unfortunately, the situation worsens for young South Africans in the job market, with more than half unemployed. 

The data showed that the youth unemployment rate for those aged between 15 and 34 was 44.6% in the fourth quarter of 2024.

However, youth aged 15 to 24 years and 25 to 34 years continue to have the highest unemployment rates at 59.6% and 39.4%, respectively.

“If you have a situation of 60% of young people who are unemployed and a high rate of poverty, that is a recipe for disaster; a recipe for an uprising,” said Dlomo.

“South Africa needs to develop the framework and programmes to keep young people out of drugs, in schools and supporting entrepreneurship,” adding that poor governance only add fuel to the embers.

“Where there is marginalisation of young people and high levels of corruption, there are strong possibilities that your security is compromised.”

 President Cyril Ramaphosa shares Dlomo’s concern over poor governance and its consequences.

Speaking at the National Water and Sanitation Indaba on 27 March, Ramaphosa admitted that a lack of basic services like water and inaction will have similar consequences.

Speaking on the importance of water supply, he acknowledged the emergence and risks posed by so-called “water mafias” across several municipalities.

These mafias sabotage water infrastructure and then profit by supplying water through tanker contracts, often colluding with municipal officials.

Ramaphosa warned that if immediate action is not taken, the country risks facing increased social unrest as dry taps, decaying infrastructure, and poor management at the local government level fuel public anger. 

“These factors make for what is called a perfect storm,” he said, adding that protests linked to water shortages are already becoming a reality.