South Africa agriculture sector – navigating global trade shifts
South Africa’s agricultural exports have great potential to continue growing – climate permitting – to key markets such as China and the EU, while taking advantage of the disruption US tariffs bring to the trading system.
This is according to Allianz Trade, which highlighted that in recent years, agricultural output has been volatile due to the pandemic downturn and the war in Ukraine.
Wheat output increased as importers sought alternatives to Ukrainian supplies in 2021, while fruits and nuts exports further dominated the sector output, growing by 40% in 5 years.
Climate continues to participate in the sector’s volatility, with a prolonged drought causing a 30% output decline in the last two quarters of 2024.
Yet, in 2025, the climate phenomenon known as La Niña is expected to bring higher quantities of precipitation, leading farmers to be more optimistic about the harvest ahead.
Figure 1. South Africa largest agriculture exports
Source: UN Comtrade, Allianz Research
Europe
Europe is South Africa’s biggest importer of agricultural products, importing 75% more than either the US or China.
Fruits and nuts are the EU’s largest imports, while prepared vegetables, raw vegetables, and fish have been the fastest-growing exported products to the continent.
While fruits are water-intense as they require extensive irrigation systems, other growing South African exports to the European Union require less water – hence, less risky to output shortages in the future.
As Europe faces further challenges in its commercial relationship with the United States, South Africa could be a critical alternative to US agriculture imports in areas such as wine, beef, and prepared foods.
Figure 2. South Africa export of agriculture product growth rate, y/y in %
Source: UN Comtrade, Allianz Research
China
Meanwhile, South African agricultural exports to China remain underdeveloped, and in 2024, exports to China declined by 10%.
This is concerning as in the years post the COVID-19 pandemic, overall exports to the Asian giant had grown or remained stable, varying based primarily on total South African output that was heavily influenced by climate.
Fruits are South Africa’s biggest agricultural export to China, valued above $400m in 2023, followed by fish and meat products, together at $80m.
Meanwhile, sales of wine and spirits, as well as prepared vegetables, have declined between South Africa and China – all while South Africa became an increasing exporter of these products to Western markets.
By taking advantage of the current rift with Washington, as well as Pretoria’s membership to the BRICS, South Africa could establish further links to the Chinese market, increasing exports of agricultural products.
Agricultural products are at the core of the tit-for-tat in the current trade war between the US and its main commercial partners, the EU and China., and South Africa could step in and be a substitute.
Take soybeans and wine.
Soybeans are among South Africa’s top 10 exports. In 2023, South Africa exported over $1b – still far behind the value exported of its top agricultural export, fruits and nuts, at $8.7b.
Soybeans are among the largest agricultural imports of both the EU and China from the United States.
In front of potential retaliatory tariffs, South African soybean exporters would have a competitive advantage in European and Chinese markets.
In addition, soybeans are moderately low water-intensive products compared to wheat or maize, making them a lesser risk to producers in front of climate change.
United States of America
In the opposite direction, in recent weeks, the Trump Administration has threatened 200% tariffs on EU wine imports.
South African wine exporters could also use this as an opportunity to establish further relations with US importers.
South African wine exports represent almost $70m to the US, and as a low water-intensive crop, wine has great potential for the African nation.
The United States is among South Africa’s most important export markets; yet agriculture remains below 3% of total exports to the US, compared to minerals and machinery.
As the market access for South Africa to the US might be put in question during the current Trump Administration, the entire Southern African economy could suffer, leaving the agriculture sector more sheltered.
Fruits would be the most affected product, as exports were valued above $200m in 2024.
Processed fruits, nuts, and vegetables would also be impacted, given that the US has been a growth market for such products.
Exports have grown by 200% since 2018. Similarly, edible preparations, live animals, and raisins have also experienced strong growth levels over the last five years.
These exporters must seek alternative markets to ensure the gains are not entirely wiped out in case of market access loss.
Figure 3: South Africa’s largest overall exports per country in 2023, % of country destination total
Source: UN Comtrade, Allianz Research
Gulf region
Beyond the largest trading blocs, South African agricultural exporters should consider diversifying into markets that are less risk-prone yet maintain high-income levels, such as the Gulf region.
In this area, harsh climate conditions make local harvesting challenging, leading to a substantial reliance on agricultural imports.
Leveraging the political connections afforded by its BRICS membership, South Africa has the opportunity to strengthen commercial ties with the United Arab Emirates.
As of 2023, South Africa’s exports to the UAE amounted to just over $500m, while the UAE’s agricultural imports – ranging from cereals and wine to meat products – exceeded $30b.
This presents a significant opportunity for growth.
South African agricultural exporters encounter numerous challenges both domestically and internationally.
While some obstacles, like climate disruption, are difficult to control, proactive capital investment in irrigation systems will be crucial for the sector’s long-term sustainability.
International challenges, such as accessing diverse markets, will depend not only on exporters’ ability to forge new commercial relationships, but also on the government’s capacity to establish robust commercial ties in an increasingly multipolar world.
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