Emigration shock as South Africa’s population hits 63 million

Stats SA has published its latest mid-year population estimates for 2024, which show that the South African population has reached over 63 million – but tens of thousands of people are still leaving.

According to Stats SA, the country’s population grew by approximately 835,513 individuals, marking a 1.33% increase from July 2023 to July 2024. The data reveals that over half of the population is female, totalling around 32 million people.

Provincial population estimates indicate that Gauteng remains the most populous province with nearly 16 million residents. KwaZulu-Natal follows with a population of 12.3 million.

Together, these two provinces account for about 45% of South Africa’s total population. In contrast, Northern Cape is the least populated province, housing just under 1.4 million people.

The Mid-Year Population Estimates (MYPE) provide critical demographic indicators of recovery, including death rates and growth rates, following the Covid-19 pandemic.

The crude death rate (CDR), which measures the annual rate of deaths per 1,000 people, peaked at 11.1 in 2021 during the height of the pandemic.

By 2024, the CDR had significantly declined to 8.7, reflecting the positive impact of Covid-19 interventions.

Similarly, the estimated annual population growth rate fell to 1.06% in 2020–2021 due to the surge in Covid-19 deaths and a drop in immigration. However, it rebounded to 1.33% by 2024.

Looking at migration, Stats SA noted that migration patterns have regularised, which has fed into its estimations.

Tracking migration is difficult, the group said.

While the country reliably registers births and deaths, which assists in estimating fertility and mortality, international migration surveillance systems have failed to accurately account for the number of international migrants entering the borders through land, boat, or aeroplane.

“While a concerted effort has been made to secure South Africa’s borders, irregular migration is a common problem contributing to migration data issues,” Stats SA said.

However, by triangulating a number of data sources i.e. the census, population age and sex structure seen in other surveillance systems such as education, health and employment, as well as censuses of other countries capturing South African migrants and tourists’ patterns, migration assumptions can be informed.

Using this method, Stats SA estimates that South Africa will see net migration of 758,538 people into the country between 2021 and 2026. This is up significantly from the previous estimation of around 592,000 people, given the lockdowns and pandemic restrictions in effect at the time.

Notably, Stats SA pointed out that across population groups, all groups show a positive net migration (ie, people coming into the country) except for the white population, which is showing negative net migration.

Tracking data from 1985 through to 2026, it is estimated that just under 700,000 white South Africans will have emigrated. Approximately 203,000 white South Africans emigrated between 1985 and 2000.

The emigration pattern has slowed down in recent periods, moving from 111,346 from this demographic emigrating between 2011 and 2016 to an estimate of 84,308 people emigrating between 2021 and 2026.

Stats SA noted that net international migration estimates are derived using not only Census 2011 migration data, but also migration numbers and proportions from various other authors, methods and data sources such as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and UNDESA, which forms part of the UN network.

“These estimates are informed by the number of new immigration permits issued, which only partly represents migration flow (OECD, 2023). Furthermore, irregular migration constitutes a significant proportion of migration, often missed in official estimates, and this varies from country to country.

“Census data from National Statistics Offices (NSOs) of various countries as well as migration data is also sourced,” Stats SA said.

Previous migration data from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs showed that close to 1 million South Africans are living abroad.

In 2000, there were a total of 501,600 South African citizens residing abroad. In 2005, this increased to 550,462 and only continued to jump from there: 743,807 in 2010; 786,554 in 2015; and finally, in 2020, the number reached 914,901.

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