Trouble for braai lovers in South Africa
The cost of hosting a braai in South Africa has increased for the second month in a row, with ingredient prices climbing 2.7% since September.
On a more positive note, year-on-year prices are down slightly by 1.0%.
This is according to the latest Braai index, conceptualised by Bloomberg and compiled using the latest data from the Pietermaritzburg Equity Justice and Dignity (PMGEJD) for October.
The index looks at the food items used in the preparation of braai, and tracks the movement in prices of this specific basket month-on-month and year-on-year.
This includes the meat (Beef, wors, chicken portions), vegetables (spinach, carrots, tomatoes, potatoes, onions, green pepper) and others (samp, maize, curry powder, salt).
To compile its survey, the PMBEJD’s data collectors track food prices on the shelves of 47 supermarkets and 32 butcheries that target the low-income market in the greater areas of Johannesburg, Durban, Cape Town, Pietermaritzburg, Springbok in the far northwest and the far northeastern town of Mtubatuba.
The month-on-month index showed prices for a braai increased by 2.7%. Year-on-year, prices were down 1.0%. This is a continued declining trend in year-on-year pricing, meaning more affordable braais overall.
One of the biggest drivers of prices month-on-month is a massive 18.8% surge in the pricing for potatoes—so one could avoid their braai being too much more expensive by skipping the potato salad.
This is also broadly in line with the latest consumer inflation numbers from Stats SA, which showed that the Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages (Food NAB) segment increased slightly month-on-month, despite overall inflation dropping.
Annual food & NAB inflation was flat for the month, sticking at 4.7% in September. However, month-on-month, food & NAB inflation rose 0.6%.
Headline CPI, meanwhile, dropped to 3.8%.
Softer annual rates were recorded for hot beverages; meat; bread & cereals; sugar, sweets & desserts; and oils & fats.
Hot beverages continued to register the highest annual rate among all food & NAB categories (at 15,8%), despite a cooler rate in September when compared with August’s 17,5%.
Vegetables, fruit, cold beverages and fish recorded higher rates in September. Inflation for milk, eggs & cheese was stable.
Month-on-month index change [+2.7%]
Year-on-year index change [-1.0%]
Food prices in South Africa
Looking at the PMBEJD’s full data—its full basket comprising 44 food items across the country—food inflation was up 1.0% year on year, and up 1.2% month-on-month.
In October 2024, the average cost of the Household Food Basket is R5,348.65.
Month-on-month, the average cost of the Household Food Basket increased by R92.97 (1.8%), from R5,255.68 in September 2024. Year-on-year, the basket increased by R51.07 (1.0%), from R5,297.58.
“Between May 2024 and August 2024, we saw a slight decrease in the overall cost of the basket but in September we again saw an upwards trajectory in the price of the basket, and this has continued in October,| the PMBEJD said.
“This upward trend is taking place as we see petrol and diesel prices decline, stability of electricity supply, interest rates and CPI headline inflation trending downwards.
“In such a context we would expect that food prices should have continued its lower trajectory and continued on a downward trend.”
This is a concerning trend has been flagged by the Competition Commission of South Africa, which is investigating the “rocket and feather” trend in retail pricing—where retailers hike prices in response to adverse market conditions, but take a long time to return pricing to ‘normal’ when markets turn.
The commission issued a strong warning to retailers earlier this month regarding the pricing of essential food items, emphasising the need for greater vigilance and fairness as food prices continue to be a concern for many households.
Despite recent positive signs of slowing inflation, the commission is concerned that food prices remain high and are not decreasing as rapidly as they should in response to reduced cost pressures.
The latest Essential Food Price Monitoring (EFPM) report outlines these concerns and highlights several specific food items that have drawn attention due to potential price discrepancies along the value chain.
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