Research conducted by Oxford Economics shows future trends and market opportunities in the world’s largest 750 cities, and forecasts what the global urban landscape could look like in 2030.
The report takes into account population size, age and income per capita, and includes South Africa’s two biggest cities, Johannesburg, and Cape Town.
According to the paper, New York City will contribute the most to global economic growth by 2030. Unsurprisingly, China is the country with the most cities in the top 10.
The study finds that the world’s 750 largest cities represent 57% of global gross domestic product (GDP), and will contribute 61% by the year 2030.
By 2030 there will be 410 million more people living in the biggest 750 cities globally. That means approximately 240 million new jobs and 260 million new homes will need to be created.
These urban dwellers will have 1.1 billion jobs, representing 30% of total jobs.
In Africa, Johannesburg will be the biggest city in terms of GDP, contributing $196 billion, followed by Cairo ($168 billion), Luanda ($138 billion), Lagos ($76 billion), and Cape Town ($73 billion).
In terms of population in Africa, Lagos in Nigeria will have as 25 million people in 2030, followed by Kinshasa (16.7 million), Cairo (14.1 million), Luanda (9.8 million), and Dar es Salaam (9.4 million).
A separate report from the United Nations showed that Johannesburg and surrounds population had reached 9.4 million by 2015, and is projected to grow to over 11.5 million in 2030, making it the 34th biggest city in the world.
Cape Town’s population is expected to grow to 4.32 million, from 3.66 million in 2015.
Globally, London is expected to have a population of 16.7 million by 2013, with Mexico up to 22.3 million. New York’s population is expected to reach 20.4 million, however, Asia’s population is forecast to explode:
- Jakarta – 37 million
- Chongqing – 32.6 million
- Tokyo – 36.3 million
- Shanghai – 29.2 million
- Beijing – 28.5 million
- Mumbai – 24.2 million
A recent report published by Allianz showed that Johannesburg is set to be classified as a megacity by 2030, with its population exceeding 10 million people.
Oxford Economics’ report suggests that Johannesburg will have 2.1 million middle income households – people earning $10,000 – $70,000.
The economic hub of South Africa is expected to be the 18th largest consumer market for cars by 2030, representing a value of $12.7 billion.