{"id":101160,"date":"2015-10-14T19:30:09","date_gmt":"2015-10-14T17:30:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=101160"},"modified":"2015-10-14T17:20:18","modified_gmt":"2015-10-14T15:20:18","slug":"south-africas-economy-could-sink-to-number-three-in-africa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/trending\/101160\/south-africas-economy-could-sink-to-number-three-in-africa\/","title":{"rendered":"South Africa&#8217;s economy could sink to number three in Africa"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Economic analysis from investment bank Renaissance Capital (RenCap) says that South Africa may come alarmingly close to losing its place as the second biggest economy in Africa.<\/p>\n<p>According to RenCap chief economist, Charles Robertson, the group&#8217;s projections would see South Africa&#8217;s GDP output for 2015 slipping to $317 billion.<\/p>\n<p>Nigeria officially became Africa\u2019s biggest economy in April last year, leap-frogging South Africa, after the government announced a long-overdue rebasing of the country\u2019s gross domestic product.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, Egypt &#8211; the continent&#8217;s current number 3 &#8211; is projected to reach $315 billion, just a couple of billion dollars shy of overtaking South Africa.<\/p>\n<p>World Bank data from 2014 put South Africa&#8217;s GDP output at $349.8 billion, with Egypt sitting at $286.5 billion.<\/p>\n<p>The figures from RenCap are revised figures, taking real GDP growth, inflation and movements in exchange rates into account &#8211; the latter-most of which had the biggest impact.<\/p>\n<p>South Africa&#8217;s economy has been battered by major fluctuations in the exchange rate in 2015, with the country&#8217;s currency hitting new all-time lows against the US dollar in recent months.<\/p>\n<p>The Egyptian pound has declined 8.7% against the dollar this year, while the South African rand has lost 16.8% of its value, the group said.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_101162\" style=\"width: 286px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"http:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/10\/Projected-GDP-2015.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-101162\" class=\" wp-image-101162\" src=\"http:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/10\/Projected-GDP-2015.png\" alt=\"Projected GDP 2015\" width=\"276\" height=\"401\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/10\/Projected-GDP-2015.png 380w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/10\/Projected-GDP-2015-207x300.png 207w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 276px) 100vw, 276px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-101162\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Projected GDP 2015<\/p><\/div>\n<p>However, the investment group did note that the Egyptian pound was one of the continent&#8217;s most over-valued currencies, while the rand was the most under-valued.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOne thing that strikes me is how negative on their own country South Africans are. [They have] deficits, a lack of reform and no growth, and the rand is one of the proxies to short if you are negative on EM,\u201d Robertson said, via the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ft.com\/cms\/s\/3\/e20d1c88-6e7f-11e5-8171-ba1968cf791a.html#axzz3oXwcniej\" target=\"_blank\">Financial Times<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, chief economist at Economists.co.za Mike Sch\u00fcssler has told <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fin24.com\/Economy\/SAs-negative-economic-trend-gains-velocity-economist-20151014\" target=\"_blank\">Fin24<\/a> that the economic outlook for South Africa is not good, with its decline gaining momentum.<\/p>\n<p>He was commenting on the latest BankservAfrica Economic Transaction Index (Beti) released on Wednesday.<\/p>\n<p>The Beti shows just how rapid the decline in the South African economy is.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The Beti is a good co-incident indicator, which is confirming the overall decline in the domestic economy. Five of the last nine months have indicated monthly declines, coupled with four quarter-on-quarter declines,&#8221; said Sch\u00fcssler.<\/p>\n<p>Forecasts from official sources such as the International Monetary Fund and the South African Reserve Bank (Sarb) indicate much slower growth for 2015 and 2016.<\/p>\n<p>South Africa was the leading economy in Africa up until April 2014, when a rebasing of Nigeria&#8217;s economic indicators pushed the country to number 2.<\/p>\n<p>While most African countries are expected to see GDP growth of 4% and over, South Africa is expected to scrape by with around 1.5% growth at best.<\/p>\n<p>President Jacob Zuma has placed the blame for the slow economy at the feet of apartheid, calling it &#8220;colonialism of a special type&#8221; which competing countries never had to deal with.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"my-4\">More on South Africa<\/h3>\n<p><strong><a title=\"Permalink to Weak economy is apartheid\u2019s fault: Zuma\" href=\"http:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/government\/95559\/weak-economy-is-apartheids-fault-zuma\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">Weak economy is apartheid\u2019s fault: Zuma<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><a title=\"Permalink to Why President Zuma is wrong on the economy\" href=\"http:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/government\/96717\/why-president-zuma-is-wrong-on-the-economy\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">Why President Zuma is wrong on the economy<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><a title=\"Permalink to How much money South Africa contributes to the global economy\" href=\"http:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/general\/99902\/how-much-money-south-africa-contributes-to-the-global-economy\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">How much money South Africa contributes to the global economy<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><a title=\"Permalink to Govt interference hits SA economy, employment\" href=\"http:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/business\/98357\/govt-interference-hits-sa-economy-employment\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">Govt interference hits SA economy, employment<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Economic analysis from investment bank Renaissance Capital (RenCap) says that South Africa may come alarmingly close to losing its place as the second biggest economy in Africa.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":95131,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9872,23,1],"tags":[1740,5153,26,853],"class_list":["post-101160","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business","category-government","category-trending","tag-economy","tag-egypt","tag-headline","tag-south-africa"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101160","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=101160"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101160\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":101172,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101160\/revisions\/101172"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/95131"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=101160"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=101160"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=101160"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}