{"id":107481,"date":"2015-12-20T15:00:15","date_gmt":"2015-12-20T13:00:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=107481"},"modified":"2015-12-18T16:38:20","modified_gmt":"2015-12-18T14:38:20","slug":"south-africans-should-prepare-for-turbulent-times-ahead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/government\/107481\/south-africans-should-prepare-for-turbulent-times-ahead\/","title":{"rendered":"South Africans should prepare for turbulent times ahead"},"content":{"rendered":"

South African President Jacob Zuma\u2019s latest cabinet reshuffle in the Ministry of Finance is arguably the most controversial of all his executive decisions. It is the seventh cabinet reshuffle<\/a> since he became president in 2009 and the third since 2014.<\/p>\n

Presidents Nelson Mandela and Thabo Mbeki only reshuffled their cabinets after general elections. The Zuma era, on the other hand, has been characterised by a high turnover, not only of cabinet members, but also senior public officials and executives in state-owned enterprises.<\/p>\n

Zuma\u2019s latest decisions – initially to remove Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene but then four days later to succumb to pressure and replace<\/a> his new appointee David van Rooyen<\/a> with Pravin Gordhan<\/a> – has left everyone speculating as to the real reasons. Gordhan is a much more prudent appointment but a major political concession from Zuma.<\/p>\n

What does it tell us about how decisions are being taken?<\/p>\n

Some argue that it is indicative of Zuma\u2019s uncontested power in the governing African National Congress (ANC)<\/a>; that he has developed an almost autocratic presidential style.<\/p>\n

Another argument is that it is symptomatic of his predicament in the ANC. This line of thinking is informed by the fact that the ANC is weaker than it\u2019s been since coming to power in 1994.<\/p>\n

The ANC has been losing membership \u2013 more than 450,000<\/a> members on Zuma\u2019s watch.<\/p>\n

And a key player in the tripartite alliance<\/a>, the trade union federation Cosatu<\/a>, split earlier this year resulting in a drastic drop<\/a> in membership. The split saw the metal workers’ union Numsa expelled over differences about the federation\u2019s relationship with the ANC.<\/p>\n

In addition, seasoned and senior party members have begun to voice their concerns about Zuma. Former president and ANC leader Kgalema Motlanthe\u2019s recently made harsh criticism of his leadership. He also declared that the tripartite alliance was dead<\/a>.<\/p>\n

His comments followed those of another party stalwart, Rev Frank Chikane<\/a>, who warned that the party faced the danger of losing future elections.<\/p>\n

To add to Zuma\u2019s woes, the contest for who takes over from him has begun. Current deputy president Cyril Ramaphosa has put his hat in the ring. And the trade union federation has implied it will support him as Zuma\u2019s successor<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Paranoia<\/h3>\n

The growing factionalism in the ANC has left Zuma unsure who he can trust, even in his own province KwaZulu-Natal. The result has been signs of growing paranoia, particularly about possible critical or independent voices in the ANC. He considers all as threats to his position.<\/p>\n

In the past, Zuma built a stronghold of support, through patronage, in the government\u2019s security cluster \u2013 police, state security, military and prisons \u2013 which he staffed with his acolytes.<\/p>\n

He did the same with the National Prosecuting Authority and some of the parastatals, using the appointments to secure support for himself.<\/p>\n

The latest intervention against his minister of finance shows two things:<\/p>\n