At current forecasts, consumers can expect a big rise in the petrol price for April, warns senior researcher at Solidarity, Paul Joubert.<\/p>\n
“If the current under-recovery on petrol remains as is until 31 March, the price of a litre of 95 octane petrol will rise by about 83 cents.<\/p>\n
“Under the same circumstances, the price of 93 octane petrol will rise by about 79 cents and the wholesale price of diesel will rise by about 93 cents per litre,” the analyst said.<\/p>\n
Joubert noted that during the month of March so far, the rand has on average been a bit stronger, at R15.57 against the dollar, than in February (R15.79), but the international bulk refinery-gate prices of petrol and diesel have increased significantly over the same period.<\/p>\n
These higher international bulk prices, combined with the annual increase in the tax on fuel (this year it is 30 cents) are what will lead to the expected higher fuel prices in April, he said.<\/p>\n
Finance Minister, Pravin Gordhan noted in his budget speech in February, that the general fuel levy will be raised by 30 cents\/litre to R2.85\/l for petrol and R2.70\/l for diesel, effective April 6 2016.<\/p>\n
The changes to the amount of tax are always made annually in April and then remains constant for the following twelve months. Currently, the total tax – including the tax for the Road Accident Fund – is R4.13 on a litre of 93 octane petrol and R3.98 on a litre of diesel, Joubert said.<\/p>\n
Solidarity noted that the retail price of petrol and the wholesale price of diesel are adjusted monthly in South Africa according to the previous month\u2019s international bulk prices of petrol and diesel in dollar, which are then converted to rand.<\/p>\n
The price of oil does not play any direct role in the calculation of these prices \u2013 the dollar prices of refined petrol and diesel at international refineries are used. The price of oil is only one of many inputs into the refining process, which explains why the petrol and diesel prices do not always track oil prices exactly.<\/p>\n
Joubert said that if the price increases by 79 cents, 93 octane petrol will cost R12.25 in Gauteng in April – still 2.9% lower than in April 2015.<\/p>\n
If diesel increases by 93 cents, the wholesale price for diesel with 0,05% sulphur will be R10.51, which is 6.4% lower than it was in April 2015.<\/p>\n
| Fuel<\/th>\n | March 2016<\/th>\n | Fuel Levy increase<\/th>\n | Projected Price Change (Solidarity)<\/th>\n | April 2016 (proj.)<\/strong><\/th>\n<\/tr>\n| Petrol 93<\/td>\n | R11.46<\/td>\n | +R0.30<\/td>\n | +R0.49<\/td>\n | R12.25<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | Petrol 95<\/td>\n | R11.74<\/td>\n | +R0.30<\/td>\n | +R0.53<\/td>\n | R12.57<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | Diesel 0.05%<\/td>\n | R9.58<\/td>\n | +R0.30<\/td>\n | +R0.63<\/td>\n | R10.51<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | Diesel 0.005%<\/td>\n | R9.62<\/td>\n | +R0.30<\/td>\n | +R0.63<\/td>\n | R10.55<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table><\/div>\n<\/div>\n | Solidarity stressed that the forecast prices are subject to much uncertainty, especially with the volatile markets at the moment, and therefore could change significantly before the end of March.<\/p>\n More on the petrol price in SA<\/h3>\nSouth Africa\u2019s petrol price vs the world<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n |
|---|