A new economic report by Focus Economics shows how global banks rate South Africa’s prospects for economic growth in 2016.<\/p>\n
According to Focus Economics, South Africa’s economic outlook remains fragile, as electricity and water supply constraints, coupled with low commodity prices, continue to weigh on growth.<\/p>\n
“Moreover, failure of the government to push forward with fiscal consolidation reforms might provoke a downgrade of the country\u2019s credit rating to junk territory,” it said.<\/p>\n
Inflation eased from 7.0% in February to 6.3% in March. Looking forward, the group said inflation is expected to remain at relatively-high levels amid a weak currency and a food supply shortage.<\/p>\n
“Our panel projects inflation to average 6.5% in 2016 and 6.3% in 2017,” it said.<\/p>\n
The Focus Economics panel cut its GDP forecast for the ninth consecutive month and now expects the economy to expand 0.7% in 2016, which is down 0.1 percentage points from April\u2019s estimate.<\/p>\n
The growth forecast is reached by finding consensus among 27 global banks and financial analysis groups. The banks’ consensus is that South Africa’s economy will grow at 0.7% in 2016, moving up to 1.4% in 2017.<\/p>\n
The bank which rated South Africa the lowest was Deutsche Bank, which projected South Africa’s economic growth at a mere 0.1% in 2016. This was o.2 percentage points lower than Citigroup, which pegged the country’s growth at 0.3% – the second lowest.<\/p>\n
On the other end of the scale, however, some banks were more optimistic – with Goldman Sachs keeping its growth rate for South Africa at 1.5%, and at least three others at 1%.<\/p>\n
Economic growth predictions<\/strong><\/p>\n Why the rand punches above the weight of South Africa\u2019s economy<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n \u201cSecret\u201d rating downgrade can crush South Africa\u2019s economy: researchers<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n We will end white control of SA economy: Ramaphosa<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n
\n Financial Group<\/th>\n 2016 growth<\/th>\n 2017 growth<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n \n Goldman Sachs<\/td>\n 1.5%<\/td>\n 2.1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Euler Hermes<\/td>\n 1.0%<\/td>\n 1.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Julius Baer<\/td>\n 1.0%<\/td>\n 1.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Lloyds TSB<\/td>\n 1.0%<\/td>\n 1.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Commerzbank<\/td>\n 0.9%<\/td>\n 1.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Credit Suisse<\/td>\n 0.9%<\/td>\n 2.0%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Danske Bank<\/td>\n 0.9%<\/td>\n 1.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n ING<\/td>\n 0.9%<\/td>\n 1.2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Nomura<\/td>\n 0.9%<\/td>\n 1.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Standard Chartered<\/td>\n 0.8%<\/td>\n 1.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n BMI Research<\/td>\n 0.7%<\/td>\n 1.2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n EIU<\/td>\n 0.7%<\/td>\n 1.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Frontier Strategy<\/td>\n 0.7%<\/td>\n 0.8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Investec<\/td>\n 0.7%<\/td>\n 1.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Oxford Economics<\/td>\n 0.7%<\/td>\n 1.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Barclays Capital<\/td>\n 0.6%<\/td>\n 1.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Credit Agricole<\/td>\n 0.6%<\/td>\n 1.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n DekaBank<\/td>\n 0.6%<\/td>\n 1.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n UBS<\/td>\n 0.6%<\/td>\n 1.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Capital Economics<\/td>\n 0.5%<\/td>\n 1.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n HSBC<\/td>\n 0.5%<\/td>\n 1.2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n JPMorgan<\/td>\n 0.5%<\/td>\n 0.9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n BNP Paribas<\/td>\n 0.4%<\/td>\n 0.9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Bank of America Merril Lynch<\/td>\n 0.4%<\/td>\n 1.0%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Citigroup Global<\/td>\n 0.3%<\/td>\n 1.1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Econometrix<\/td>\n 0.3%<\/td>\n 1.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Deutsche Bank<\/td>\n 0.1%<\/td>\n 1.0%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n <\/td>\n <\/td>\n <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Consensus<\/td>\n 0.7%<\/td>\n 1.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table><\/div>\n<\/div>\n More on the economy<\/h3>\n