Traditionalists<\/strong> \u2013 rural, black nationalist, socially conservative, loyal to Jacob Zuma, dominated by Zulus, strong commitment to a centralised state, redistributive policies and not constitutionalists.<\/p>\n Reformers<\/strong> \u2013 social democrats, typically urban, include larger segment of born-free voters with jobs, multi-ethnic, believe in a mixed economy and the importance of inclusive economic growth, Gauteng ANC and others.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n According to the ISS, looking ahead to 2024, with the current political landscape as a backdrop, South Africa faces three future scenarios.<\/p>\n “The first scenario is an uninspiring and business-as-usual ‘Bafana Bafana’ scenario, an alarming downward scenario called ‘Nation Divided’, where the traditionalist camp within the ruling party holds sway, and a desirable ‘Mandela Magic’ scenario, where reformists triumph and begin to address some of the country\u2019s most pressing challenges,” the group said.<\/p>\n “South Africa is a complex country and, just as few foresaw the transition from white minority control to democracy some three decades ago, we do not claim the ability to predict the future. These are turbulent times for the country, with the potential for divergent outcomes.”<\/p>\n According to the ISS, this is the current political landscape, as at the end of the 2014 National elections:<\/p>\n Bafana Bafana<\/strong><\/p>\n In the Bafana Bafana scenario, the South African economy remains firmly stuck in a middle-income trap, accentuated by policy vacillation, investor uncertainty, poor political management and bad implementation.<\/p>\n Traditionalists and reformers are at each others throats within the ANC in an ongoing tussle for control over state resources.<\/p>\n This outcome will be reached if South Africa stays on its current path.<\/p>\n “President Zuma\u00a0is most likely forced to step down as president of South Africa once a new president of\u00a0the ANC is elected at the ANC\u2019s National Conference at the end of 2017 (to avoid a ‘two\u00a0centres of power’ problem), and is replaced by a compromise slate of traditionalists and\u00a0reformers,” the ISS said.<\/p>\n “Given the burden he has become to the ANC, the early departure of Jacob Zuma Mandela Magic<\/strong><\/p>\n Various options could lead to Mandela Magic. The first is that the reformers emerge victorious from the December 2017 ANC National Conference and adopt policies that allow for a restructuring of the economy to unleash pent-up growth potential.<\/p>\n Alternatively a 2018 split in the ANC could result in the formation of a new party of interesting alliances (particularly in Gauteng) that could sharply change national and provincial election outcomes in 2019.<\/p>\n This outcome will be reached if there is a rapid transition to a new\u00a0leadership dominated by a reformist grouping –\u00a0it has the\u00a0greatest potential economic and developmental benefits for the country, and the\u00a0most positive election results for the ANC, the ISS said.<\/p>\n “Mandela Magic sees support for the EFF\u00a0eventually drop off on the understanding that many EFF supporters\u2019 votes were\u00a0actually a protest vote against the current leadership of the ANC,” the group said.<\/p>\n “In addition, ANC\u00a0voters considering voting for the DA (particularly in Gauteng) may be persuaded to give\u00a0the ANC the benefit of the doubt under a reformist and revived\u00a0commitment to leadership that echoes Mandela\u2019s vision of a\u00a0rainbow nation.”<\/p>\n Nation Divided<\/strong><\/p>\n The Nation Divided scenario is one where the traditionalists triumph during the December 2017 ANC National Conference, possibly resulting in a split in the party and the emergence of coalition politics much earlier than in any other scenario.<\/p>\n In the long run, this is the worst-case scenario for the ANC and the country (which experiences sustained low growth).<\/p>\n This outcome will be reached if\u00a0the ANC extends the mandate\u00a0of Zuma as president of the ANC and the country to 2019 (by aligning the term\u00a0of office of the president of the ANC with that of the president of the country) or if\u00a0the traditionalists triumph in December 2017 by electing a NEC and top six who\u00a0are committed to a vision of growth through redistribution.<\/p>\n “This is, in effect, an agenda where the ANC seeks to emulate some of the populist Bumps along the way<\/strong><\/p>\n Before these 2024 outcomes are reached, a number of key events will take place, all of which could fundamentally alter South Africa’s path, the ISS notes.<\/p>\n According to the ISS, however, in every scenario things will get worse before they get better. Notably, levels of political violence will increase leading up to the 2016 elections, as well as ahead of and immediately after the 2017 ANC conference.<\/p>\n Path to the three scenarios<\/p><\/div>\n In the Mandela Magic scenario, reformers would likely be able to mediate, and a more unified government will lead to prosperity by 2024, mitigating the need for violence.<\/p>\n With the Bafana Bafana scenario, will see levels of violence continue as they have, with more civil protests and political killings around elections.<\/p>\n In the Nation Divided scenario, violence between parties, especially the ANC and EFF, could escalate as both vie for power.<\/p>\n According to the ISS analysis, the most likely scenario for South Africa is the Bafana Bafana scenario.<\/p>\n “The key issue determining the future of the ANC (and the country) is the outcome of the factional battle between the reformists and traditionalists within the party,” it said.<\/p>\n Who young South Africans are likely to vote for in August<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n Drone photos show the massive divide between rich and poor in South Africa<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n Why South Africa is a racial, tribal mess<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n![\"ISS](\"http:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/ISS-Current-Support.png\")
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\nas president of both the ANC and South Africa would point the country towards
\nthe Mandela Magic scenario,” it said.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n
\npolicies espoused by the EFF \u2013 aggressive policies\u00a0of redress and black economic empowerment that prioritizes redistribution\u00a0above growth,” the ISS said.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n\n
<\/a>More on South Africa<\/h3>\n