- \n
- ANC<\/strong> – 56.5% (down from 62.0%)<\/li>\n
- DA<\/strong> – 27.0% (up from 23.9%)<\/li>\n
- EFF<\/strong> – 8.5% (new entry)<\/li>\n
- IFP<\/strong> – 1.5%<\/li>\n
- Other<\/strong> – 6.5% (down from 10.5%)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Nomura said that it does not publish predictions for specific metros, but “believe Johannesburg is much safer than Tshwane and Nelson Mandela Bay”.<\/p>\n
“Overall, we think one or possibly two metros could fall from ANC majority control,” it said.<\/p>\n
The group did, however, provide the following outcome predictions for the three major metros:<\/p>\n
![\"Johannesburg](\"http:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/Johannesburg-at-Sunset.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nJohannesburg\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n
Nomura believes that the City of Johannesburg is safe within the ANC, due in large part to the popularity of current (ANC) mayor, Parks Tau.<\/p>\n
“While (DA candidate) Herman Mashaba\u2019s libertarian views could be
\ndescribed as very investor friendly, they do not chime with the electorate in Johannesburg,” the group said.<\/p>\n“We expect the EFF and DA to take some ground against the ANC, but for the ANC to still be able to hold above 50%. Given the DA has further to go here than in other metros, a more messy coalition outcome would be likely if the ANC loses overall control.”<\/p>\n
![\"Pretoria](\"http:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/Pretoria-city.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nTshwane\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n
In Tshwane, Nomura sees a high likelihood of the ANC dropping below 50%, but no outright victory by any opposition party.<\/p>\n
The ANC voters have shown they are dissatisfied with the leadership in the province, and as such, vote switching from ANC to DA is seen most likely here.<\/p>\n
“The EFF and DA combined may fail to reach 50% however and require smaller parties like VF+ (which is particularly strong in the city vs elsewhere in the country). A three or more party coalition might be necessary,” the group said.<\/p>\n
![\"Port](\"http:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/07\/Port-Elizabeth.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\nNelson Mandela Bay<\/strong><\/p>\n
Nelson Mandela Bay, which is seen as a sure-win for the DA, is actually more complicated than it appears, Nomura said.<\/p>\n
“Nelson Mandela Bay is very difficult to call because it has been such an intense battleground for all parties.”<\/p>\n
“An outright DA majority seems unlikely, and with the EFF much smaller than elsewhere, a more complex coalition makeup is likely here with many smaller parties required,” the group said.<\/p>\n
“We think a vote switch from the ANC to DA is less likely here than in Tshwane.”<\/p>\n
More on elections<\/h3>\n
Latest election polls show DA winning three major SA metros<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n
What the violence in Tshwane means for the ANC in the election<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n
- DA<\/strong> – 27.0% (up from 23.9%)<\/li>\n