![\"ZAR](\"http:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/07\/ZAR-forecast.png\")
<\/a><\/p>\n“This view includes downgrades in November\/December but within a well telegraphed\u00a0Fed hike in December of this year and an expectation of risk-on and buying of risk and\u00a0EM assets to continue,” the group said.<\/p>\n
In the short term Nomura sees the ZAR\/USD\u00a0flat around the current range of R14.00-R15.00 until\u00a0September, as markets reprice for President Zuma not leaving office – though there is still a\u00a0widely held view by foreigners that there is a strong possibility of Zumxit this year, the group said.<\/p>\n
“We\u00a0see further ZAR weakness through next year, with the local ratings convergence story\u00a0and political noise into the ANC elective conference, but then see the possibility of\u00a0Zumxit in 2018 as Jacob Zuma hands over to his successor early to ensure a victory in\u00a0the 2019 national elections as being initially ZAR-positive even if policy actually doesn\u2019t\u00a0shift (particularly under Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma).”<\/p>\n
One thing that could cause a major upset in the markets, however, is a big cabinet reshuffle later in the year, Nomura said.<\/p>\n
“We would revise our USD\/ZAR forecast back higher on a major cabinet reshuffle which could raise the risks of immediate downgrades by the ratings agencies,” it said.<\/p>\n
The possibility of Donald Trump winning the USA elections in November could also have an impact – though this would be tempered by the fact South Africa has limited direct trade relations with the US, than Asia or the EU, the group added.<\/p>\n
More on the rand<\/h3>\n
The \u201creal\u201d value of the rand vs the dollar<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n Rand recovers after being dented by IMF corruption and growth concerns<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n Rand surges towards R14.20 vs the dollar<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n