President Jacob Zuma needs to get rid of finance minister Pravin Gordhan as a matter of urgency, if the system of patronage and tenderpreneurship\u00a0that has underpinned his presidency is to survive to 2019 and beyond.<\/p>\n
This is the view of Nomura research analyst, Peter Attard Montalto, reflecting on the so-called “Sars Wars” which have sent South Africa’s markets on a downward path over the past few days.<\/p>\n
On Tuesday, news broke that Gordhan had received a letter from the SAPS investigative unit, the Hawks, to appear at their offices on Thursday <\/a><\/strong>to receive a warning statement – a precursor to formal charges – relating to the “rogue Sars spy unit” established under his watch as commissioner.<\/p>\n Gordhan, after receiving legal council, decided that he would not comply with the request as there was no legal obligation for him to do so. The minister had been previously informed that there was no investigation or charges against him – and any ‘new’ legal claims are without basis.<\/p>\n According to Attard Montalto, the ongoing saga is the next phase of the ‘forgotten’ war between president Jacob Zuma and Gordhan that hit an uneasy stalemate ahead of the 2016 elections. This time, however, things will move rapidly towards the end-game, as there is a sense of urgency, with more at stake, the analyst said.<\/p>\n “The market does not understand the political dynamic\u00a0within the ANC, and especially relating to Zuma\u2019s position and his power,” Attard Montalto said.<\/p>\n “Zuma has not lost power \u2013 neither after Nene-gate nor after his\u00a0constitutional court case on Nkandla nor after these local elections. Zuma is the master\u00a0of playing the ANC, and especially the NEC at its own games, holding it in equilibrium\u00a0exactly where he wants it.”<\/p>\n “We still believe he has the support of at least 60% of the NEC,\u00a0which, in turn, backs him in what is going on now,” he said.<\/p>\n A desperate battle<\/strong><\/p>\n Zooming out, the analyst said, this is all about winning the ANC elective conference \u2013 currently\u00a0scheduled for December 2017, though possibly earlier, which now adds a sense of\u00a0urgency.<\/p>\n “Winning the elective conference is about then charting a path under a\u00a0new leader, but that represents the status quo for\u00a0(Zuma’s)\u00a0tenderpreneur faction, through to\u00a0the ANC winning in 2019.”<\/p>\n “The route to that is a well-oiled patronage machine, which requires, ultimately, control Worryingly, the analyst pointed out that Pravin Gordhan doesn’t necessarily have to “be gone” to accomplish this, as there are other ways of “boxing-in” Treasury, such as a presidential oversight panel.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n But such a route would be complex, and take time – which is something Zuma does not have in abundance. According to Attard Montalto, there are several ticking time-bombs around the presidency that are pushing this brash action:<\/p>\n “As such, we believe that a Pravin Gordhan exit\u00a0is a \u2018live\u2019 issue\u00a0–\u00a0though putting a precise timeline on this or calling the end point is exceptionally difficult. We believe we are moving towards the endgame,” the analyst said.<\/p>\n “We believe that Pravin Gordhan will fight for as long as possible to remain in position “He is\u00a0protesting his innocence in the strongest possible terms but also putting the ball firmly in\u00a0Zuma\u2019s court to fire him,” Attard Montalto said.<\/p>\n Gordhan responds to arrest claims: \u2018I can\u2019t believe this is happening\u2019<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n A new twist in the Hawks vs Gordhan saga<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n Let\u2019s be clear \u2013 there are no charges against Pravin Gordhan: NPA<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n
\nover National Treasury (NT),” Attard Montalto said.<\/p>\n\n
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\nand to protect the law, NT, and its staff. This has been shown by his decision to
\nannounce that he will not attend the meeting summons tomorrow with the Hawks.”<\/p>\nMore on the Hawks vs Gordhan<\/h3>\n