Formal police charges against finance minister Pravin Gordhan present the perfect opportunity for president Jacob Zuma to reshuffle his Cabinet under the pretence of rooting out corruption.<\/p>\n
This is according to investment research firm, Nomura, speaking on the latest developments in the so-called “Sars Wars”, which have seen Gordhan meet the Hawks head on over alleged corruption charges.<\/p>\n
In an economic insight note, Nomura research analyst Peter Attard Montalto said that president Zuma learned an important lesson from ‘NeneGate’ – but it wasn’t a lesson on the economy and the disastrous impact of firing the country’s financial lead.<\/p>\n
Instead, the analysts said, Zuma learned to drive a better narrative that suits his needs. Excuses given for firing former minister Nhlanhla Nene were flimsy and ultimately proven false – however, with Gordhan, a stronger story is being woven.<\/p>\n
“The most important factor is not public communications but the narrative Zuma spins within the ANC, NEC and the party structures that allows him to remove Gordhan,” Attard Montalto said.<\/p>\n
“Such a narrative was not in place around Nene-gate, and indeed, the BRICS development bank job \u2018cover story\u2019 was flimsy at best. We believe a lesson has been learnt about the need to better construct narratives.”<\/p>\n
Read<\/strong>:\u00a0Why Zuma is so desperate to get rid of Gordhan<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n According to Attard Montalto, the Zuma faction would likely push the following points in weaving a narrative to get Gordhan out of Treasury:<\/p>\n “This kind of narrative may make no sense to investors, but we believe it can be effective internally and allow Zuma to proceed,” Nomura said.<\/p>\n Zuma would be taking a risk, of course, but the research group said that there is enough of a view within the ANC that credit ratings don’t matter, and that the party should not be “slaves” market push-back.<\/p>\n In this line of thinking, it looks more and more likely that a Cabinet reshuffle is on the cards – which would spell doom for Gordhan as well as deputy finance minister Mcebisi Jonas.<\/p>\n “A reshuffle has been seen as imminent even before the local elections to remove SACP members from Cabinet,” Attard Montalto said.<\/p>\n Gordhan responds to arrest claims: \u2018I can\u2019t believe this is happening\u2019<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n A new twist in the Hawks vs Gordhan saga<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n Let\u2019s be clear \u2013 there are no charges against Pravin Gordhan: NPA<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n
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More on the Hawks vs Gordhan<\/h3>\n