President Jacob Zuma still holds much power over the ANC – but he has suffered a few setbacks\u00a0which may weaken his faction’s political standing ahead of the party’s elective conference.<\/p>\n
This is according to research analyst at Nomura, Peter Attard Montalto, who says that the structures of power Zuma has built around himself are being shaken in a number of high-profile cases.<\/p>\n
Nomura holds the view that the ANC is currently\u00a0\u00a0split into two camps: the pro-Zuma camp, and the reformers. The group estimates that Zuma supporters make up 60% of the National Executive, and thus have control, but there is enough resistance within the party that there is a stalemate.<\/p>\n
From this position, Attard Montalto has told investors that South Africa is unlikely to see any shift in power within the ANC over the short- to medium-term, as election results and subsequent comments from the ruling party show that Zuma will stay in power until at least the end of 2017.<\/p>\n
However, while Zuma finds himself in a strong position, the cracks are definitely starting to show.<\/p>\n
“The foundations of Zuma\u2019s power comes from his access to so-called security networks\u00a0that include the state security services and the ANC\u2019s parallel security structures \u2013 but\u00a0also cadre deployment of loyalists into key roles,” the analyst said.<\/p>\n
“Over time,\u00a0sufficient knocks may force a real shift in power dynamics within the NEC and in turn into\u00a0the coalitions formed in an elective conference.”<\/p>\n
According to Nomura, Zuma – and his faction – has suffered several defeats, which may add up over time. These are the hits being dealt:<\/p>\n
1. Two key advocates that are Zuma loyalists in the National Prosecution Authority\u00a0have been suspended. <\/strong><\/p>\n “Nomgcobo Jiba and Lawrence Mrwebi were found by a\u00a0court to have brought the legal profession into disrepute for decisions on not\u00a0undertaking prosecutions.<\/p>\n Zuma\u2019s control over the NPA is an important\u00a0component in keeping the corruption charges he faces at arm\u2019s length. There\u00a0are various appeals ongoing to have them reinstated.<\/p>\n The problem for the NPA\u00a0was such a court ruling disbars it from being an advocate and only advocates\u00a0can serve in key positions in the NPA,” Attard Montalto said.<\/p>\n 2. Zuma loyalist Hlaudi Motsoneng’s grasp of the SABC has been blown open<\/strong><\/p>\n “The account of state broadcaster SABC COO Hlaudi Motsoeneng is long and\u00a0complex and something we have avoided commenting on before.<\/p>\n Motsoeneng\u00a0is seen as a Zuma loyalist and through the Minister in charge and the SABC\u00a0board has been continually kept in place despite various court cases and media\u00a0exposure about his qualifications and his propriety to hold the post.<\/p>\n A court has\u00a0now ruled he was not adequately qualified for the post and should be removed.However, this has not happened, but further court action may, eventually, force\u00a0SABC\u2019s hand.”<\/p>\n 3. The Hawks boss leading the fight against Pravin Gordhan was not properly appointed<\/strong><\/p>\n “Hawks head Berning Ntlemeza has become well known for his involvement in\u00a0the questioning of Pravin Gordhan.<\/p>\n It has now emerged that he was\u00a0improperly appointed without full authorisation from parliament and Police\u00a0Minister Nathi Nhleko has had to ask parliament to censure him to then officially\u00a0appoint Ntlemeza.”<\/p>\n 4. SAA\u00a0chair and friend of Zuma,\u00a0Dudu Myeni will only be around for a year<\/strong><\/p>\n “The Treasury had a win with the new SAA board and only a one-year\u00a0reappointment of Dudu Myeni.”<\/p>\n 5. Divided Cosatu has not backed a clear successor for ANC leadership<\/strong><\/p>\n “The inability of the union movement within COSATU to back Zuma\u00a0wholeheartedly has been viewed as a top committee split between Zuma\u2019s\u00a0loyalists and those loyal to Cyril Ramaphosa.<\/p>\n Indeed, NUMSA has split off\u00a0today to back Ramaphosa on its own. The union movement is significantly\u00a0weaker than it was before Polokwane in 2007 (or Mangaung in 2012), but will\u00a0still be an important force at the margin in next year\u2019s elective conference.”<\/p>\n According to Nomura, these knocks form part of the ongoing \u2018war\u2019 within the ANC\u00a0–\u00a0though\u00a0it says the endpoint\u00a0remains “problematic” as long as Zuma retains control over the NEC and as long as an\u00a0early elective conference remains a near logistical impossibility.<\/p>\n “However, if there is\u00a0some erosion of power in a true sense, and factional coalitions form early ahead of an\u00a0elective conference, this could place more constraints on President Zuma,” the group said.<\/p>\n “We do not\u00a0believe this has happened yet, but could be a topic for the middle of next year.”<\/p>\n Cyril Ramaphosa gets major union support to be next ANC president<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n Gordhan: Zuma decides whether I stay, Hawks can arrest me whenever they like<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n This is who could replace Zuma as president of the ANC \u2013 and South Africa<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n
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\nMore on Zuma<\/h3>\n