{"id":140969,"date":"2016-10-23T19:00:28","date_gmt":"2016-10-23T17:00:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=140969"},"modified":"2016-10-21T15:40:10","modified_gmt":"2016-10-21T13:40:10","slug":"these-are-the-candidates-most-likely-to-be-the-next-president-of-the-anc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/government\/140969\/these-are-the-candidates-most-likely-to-be-the-next-president-of-the-anc\/","title":{"rendered":"These are the candidates most likely to be the next president of the ANC"},"content":{"rendered":"

Research analysts at Nomura have detailed how factions within the ruling African National Congress<\/a><\/strong> are going to make the succession battle for the party’s next leader more complicated than every before – here’s the list of the most likely candidates, and how likely they are to win.<\/p>\n

According to Nomura, the ANC’s is split into several ‘camps’ that, broadly, side with either the pro-Zuma ‘tenderpreneur’ faction, the ‘reformist’ and ‘socialist’ faction (currently being symbolically represented by finance minister Pravin Gordhan), or somewhere in between.<\/p>\n

The ANC elective conference is currently set to take place in the latter parts of 2017, with all talk of an early conference swept off the table. According to party insiders, the logistics of the succession battle are already underway, with the matter being discussed at NEC meetings, and will continue to be a headlining topic in every meeting to come.<\/p>\n

Ideally, the ANC would like to proceed to an elective conference with consensus as to who its next leader will be – but recent, open conflict within the party are showing that the succession lines are anything but clear.<\/p>\n

This graph shows the various factions within the ANC, and their relative power (and change in power over time) – something to consider when\u00a0discussing the ANC’s next leader.<\/p>\n

\"shift-in-power-anc\"<\/a><\/p>\n

It’s widely understood that current African Union chair, and ex-wife to president Jacob Zuma, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma<\/strong>, is the front-runner for the tenderpreneur\u00a0faction – while current deputy president, Cyril Ramaphosa<\/strong>, is being supported among reformists.<\/p>\n

However, this is by no means a clear-cut race between the two, Nomura said, as the internal politics of the ANC – with no clear lines of succession, and open conflict among members – may force the party to look elsewhere for compromise.<\/p>\n

Nomura has broken down the current candidates whose names have been echoing down party halls\u00a0and\u00a0mapped their routes to the presidency; which ANC faction is likely to support them;\u00a0and the potential stumbling blocks in them achieving the country’s top office.<\/p>\n

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\"Dlamini-Zuma\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma<\/strong> – High Probability<\/em><\/p>\n