{"id":142608,"date":"2016-11-08T19:00:09","date_gmt":"2016-11-08T17:00:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=142608"},"modified":"2016-11-08T17:52:48","modified_gmt":"2016-11-08T15:52:48","slug":"a-new-name-pops-up-as-a-possible-zuma-replacement-as-president","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/government\/142608\/a-new-name-pops-up-as-a-possible-zuma-replacement-as-president\/","title":{"rendered":"A new name pops up as a possible Zuma replacement as president"},"content":{"rendered":"

During a recent trip to South Africa to gauge the politicial and economic climate, Nomura analyst Peter Attard Montalto says one name kept popping up as a potential future president, should Jacob Zuma be forced to step down.<\/p>\n

According to Attard Montalto, there is little to no appetite for an early elective conference from within the ANC’s dominant factions, and the baseline view from Nomura is that it will not happen – Zuma will stick it through to the end of 2017 as the ANC’s leader, and stepping down as state president in the first half of 2018.<\/p>\n

However, there is an increasing probability that the so-called “tenderpreneur” faction within the ANC would want an early Zuma exit, and the appointment of an interim president would be needed to carry the party through to the December 2017 conference.<\/p>\n

“Interestingly, one of the most talked about new names to come up for such a role – new even since our last trip a month ago, highlighting how quickly things change on the ground – is Minister in the Presidency Jeff Radebe,” Attard Montalto said.<\/p>\n

\"jeff-radebe\"<\/a><\/p>\n

According to the analyst, the markets would respond very positively to Zuma being removed from the presidency, but would see deputy president Cyril Ramaphosa taking over in the interim as a tail risk.<\/p>\n

This is because he poses a significant hurdle for ‘pro-patronage’ factions to overcome at the ANC’s elective conference in 2017 – so they would not agree to having him serve in the interim unless they were sure they could defeat him in the conference.<\/p>\n

“Jacob Zuma is losing some power, but in the end we still believe that the patronage faction itself, and still probably his own faction, will be the key deciders of when and how he goes\u00a0– not the anti-patronage faction,” Attard Montalto said.<\/p>\n

“Our baseline remains that Zumxit will occur in H1 2018 – but the probability of it happening earlier has risen significantly to maybe 30% before an elective conference.”<\/p>\n

With Radebe’s name popping up, he joins other ANC senior officials as possible candidates to take the party forward.<\/p>\n

The current leading candidate (allied to the pro-Zuma and pro-patronage factions) is AU chair, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma<\/strong>, with the highest probability of taking over from Zuma in 2018.<\/p>\n

The next two leading candidates are Ramaphosa<\/strong> (purportedly of the anti-Zuma faction), and ANC treasurer Zweli Mkhize<\/strong> – seen as the optimal ‘compromise’ candidate which all factions could support.<\/p>\n

Read this:\u00a0These are the candidates most likely to be the next president of the ANC<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

During a recent trip to South Africa to gauge the politicial and economic climate, Nomura analyst Peter Attard Montalto says one name kept popping up as a potential president, should Jacob Zuma be forced to step down.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":96017,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[26],"class_list":["post-142608","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-government","tag-headline"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/142608","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=142608"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/142608\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":142696,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/142608\/revisions\/142696"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/96017"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=142608"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=142608"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=142608"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}