If the party voted along the same trend as it did in\u00a02012, however, Dlamini-Zuma would come out on top.<\/p>\n
This conclusion is based on how the slate votes went at the ANC’s 53rd National Conference in Mangaung held in 2012,\u00a0but brought in line with how\u00a0the ANC’s current political factions are drawn.<\/p>\n
\n
![](\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/Dlamini-Zuma.png\")
<\/a><\/h3>\nNkosazana Dlamini-Zuma<\/strong><\/h3>\nVerwoerd believes that\u00a0the Women\u2019s League, Youth League and Veterans will support Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma.<\/p>\n
“I think we can also fairly safely assume that both the delegates and additional provincial delegates from the Free State, North West and Mpumalanga will support her.”<\/p>\n
Using\u00a0the 2012 Mangaung slate figures, her supporting votes\u00a0would add up to 1,168 votes.<\/p>\n
“The question is then whether the deeply divided KZN will give her their unanimous support. If so, that would add another 974 votes giving her a total of 2,142 votes.”<\/p>\n
As a result,\u00a0Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma is the current forerunner, with the KZN branches being a deciding factor.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\n![\"cyril](\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/cyril-ramaphosa-2.jpg\")
<\/a><\/h3>\nCyril Ramaphosa<\/strong><\/h3>\nIf Cyril Ramaphosa can get the support of all the other provinces, it would add up to 2,114, Verwoerd said, falling just short of Dlamini-Zuma’s 2,142.<\/p>\n
However, if the ANC’s KZN vote splits\u00a0(which remains a possibility), it could add an additional 487 to the total – which would mean victory for Ramaphosa with 2,601 votes.<\/p>\n
This scenario relies heavily on the KZN faction splitting.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\n![](\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/Baleka-Mbete.png\")
<\/a><\/h3>\nBaleka Mbete\/Zweli Mkhize<\/strong><\/h3>\nIf either Baleka Mbete or Zweli Mkhize decide to join the leadership race, they would split the votes, Verword said, with Mbete taking some of Dlamini-Zuma\u2019s votes while Mkhize will eat into Ramaphosa\u2019s.<\/p>\n
In any of these scenarios, and based on previous figures, KZN and the Eastern Cape would be the deciding provinces.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\n![](\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/01\/ANC-flag.png\")
<\/a><\/h3>\nChanges since Mangaung and other factors<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\nVerwoerd noted that it was difficult to accurately predict the outcome of the 2017 conference as the ANC’s exact numbers were not currently known – and typically the various provinces gain more members leading up to elections.<\/p>\n
Further, the country’s political loyalties have changes since\u00a0Mangaung – many who were previously on the Zuma slate are now opposing Zuma and his supporters, she said.<\/p>\n
Vewoerd believes there is also an element of chaos at play, with many provinces \u00a0in disarray at the moment due to provincial executives not functioning properly.<\/p>\n
A compromise list with Ramaphosa and Dlamini-Zuma on a joint ticket together with some of the Premier League candidates is also reportedly an option.<\/p>\n
“Of course the question then remains who would be willing to give up their aspirations for the top job and serve as the deputy? My guess is neither would be very keen,”\u00a0Verwoerd said.<\/p>\n
You can read the full column on News24<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n <\/p>\n
\n
Verwoerd believes that\u00a0the Women\u2019s League, Youth League and Veterans will support Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma.<\/p>\n
“I think we can also fairly safely assume that both the delegates and additional provincial delegates from the Free State, North West and Mpumalanga will support her.”<\/p>\n
Using\u00a0the 2012 Mangaung slate figures, her supporting votes\u00a0would add up to 1,168 votes.<\/p>\n
“The question is then whether the deeply divided KZN will give her their unanimous support. If so, that would add another 974 votes giving her a total of 2,142 votes.”<\/p>\n
As a result,\u00a0Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma is the current forerunner, with the KZN branches being a deciding factor.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\n
<\/a><\/h3>\nCyril Ramaphosa<\/strong><\/h3>\nIf Cyril Ramaphosa can get the support of all the other provinces, it would add up to 2,114, Verwoerd said, falling just short of Dlamini-Zuma’s 2,142.<\/p>\n
However, if the ANC’s KZN vote splits\u00a0(which remains a possibility), it could add an additional 487 to the total – which would mean victory for Ramaphosa with 2,601 votes.<\/p>\n
This scenario relies heavily on the KZN faction splitting.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\n<\/a><\/h3>\nBaleka Mbete\/Zweli Mkhize<\/strong><\/h3>\nIf either Baleka Mbete or Zweli Mkhize decide to join the leadership race, they would split the votes, Verword said, with Mbete taking some of Dlamini-Zuma\u2019s votes while Mkhize will eat into Ramaphosa\u2019s.<\/p>\n
In any of these scenarios, and based on previous figures, KZN and the Eastern Cape would be the deciding provinces.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\n<\/a><\/h3>\nChanges since Mangaung and other factors<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\nVerwoerd noted that it was difficult to accurately predict the outcome of the 2017 conference as the ANC’s exact numbers were not currently known – and typically the various provinces gain more members leading up to elections.<\/p>\n
Further, the country’s political loyalties have changes since\u00a0Mangaung – many who were previously on the Zuma slate are now opposing Zuma and his supporters, she said.<\/p>\n
Vewoerd believes there is also an element of chaos at play, with many provinces \u00a0in disarray at the moment due to provincial executives not functioning properly.<\/p>\n
A compromise list with Ramaphosa and Dlamini-Zuma on a joint ticket together with some of the Premier League candidates is also reportedly an option.<\/p>\n
“Of course the question then remains who would be willing to give up their aspirations for the top job and serve as the deputy? My guess is neither would be very keen,”\u00a0Verwoerd said.<\/p>\n
You can read the full column on News24<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n <\/p>\n
\n
If Cyril Ramaphosa can get the support of all the other provinces, it would add up to 2,114, Verwoerd said, falling just short of Dlamini-Zuma’s 2,142.<\/p>\n
However, if the ANC’s KZN vote splits\u00a0(which remains a possibility), it could add an additional 487 to the total – which would mean victory for Ramaphosa with 2,601 votes.<\/p>\n
This scenario relies heavily on the KZN faction splitting.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\n
<\/a><\/h3>\nBaleka Mbete\/Zweli Mkhize<\/strong><\/h3>\nIf either Baleka Mbete or Zweli Mkhize decide to join the leadership race, they would split the votes, Verword said, with Mbete taking some of Dlamini-Zuma\u2019s votes while Mkhize will eat into Ramaphosa\u2019s.<\/p>\n
In any of these scenarios, and based on previous figures, KZN and the Eastern Cape would be the deciding provinces.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\n<\/a><\/h3>\nChanges since Mangaung and other factors<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\nVerwoerd noted that it was difficult to accurately predict the outcome of the 2017 conference as the ANC’s exact numbers were not currently known – and typically the various provinces gain more members leading up to elections.<\/p>\n
Further, the country’s political loyalties have changes since\u00a0Mangaung – many who were previously on the Zuma slate are now opposing Zuma and his supporters, she said.<\/p>\n
Vewoerd believes there is also an element of chaos at play, with many provinces \u00a0in disarray at the moment due to provincial executives not functioning properly.<\/p>\n
A compromise list with Ramaphosa and Dlamini-Zuma on a joint ticket together with some of the Premier League candidates is also reportedly an option.<\/p>\n
“Of course the question then remains who would be willing to give up their aspirations for the top job and serve as the deputy? My guess is neither would be very keen,”\u00a0Verwoerd said.<\/p>\n
You can read the full column on News24<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n <\/p>\n
\n
If either Baleka Mbete or Zweli Mkhize decide to join the leadership race, they would split the votes, Verword said, with Mbete taking some of Dlamini-Zuma\u2019s votes while Mkhize will eat into Ramaphosa\u2019s.<\/p>\n
In any of these scenarios, and based on previous figures, KZN and the Eastern Cape would be the deciding provinces.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\n
<\/a><\/h3>\nChanges since Mangaung and other factors<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\nVerwoerd noted that it was difficult to accurately predict the outcome of the 2017 conference as the ANC’s exact numbers were not currently known – and typically the various provinces gain more members leading up to elections.<\/p>\n
Further, the country’s political loyalties have changes since\u00a0Mangaung – many who were previously on the Zuma slate are now opposing Zuma and his supporters, she said.<\/p>\n
Vewoerd believes there is also an element of chaos at play, with many provinces \u00a0in disarray at the moment due to provincial executives not functioning properly.<\/p>\n
A compromise list with Ramaphosa and Dlamini-Zuma on a joint ticket together with some of the Premier League candidates is also reportedly an option.<\/p>\n
“Of course the question then remains who would be willing to give up their aspirations for the top job and serve as the deputy? My guess is neither would be very keen,”\u00a0Verwoerd said.<\/p>\n
You can read the full column on News24<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n <\/p>\n
\n
Verwoerd noted that it was difficult to accurately predict the outcome of the 2017 conference as the ANC’s exact numbers were not currently known – and typically the various provinces gain more members leading up to elections.<\/p>\n
Further, the country’s political loyalties have changes since\u00a0Mangaung – many who were previously on the Zuma slate are now opposing Zuma and his supporters, she said.<\/p>\n
Vewoerd believes there is also an element of chaos at play, with many provinces \u00a0in disarray at the moment due to provincial executives not functioning properly.<\/p>\n
A compromise list with Ramaphosa and Dlamini-Zuma on a joint ticket together with some of the Premier League candidates is also reportedly an option.<\/p>\n
“Of course the question then remains who would be willing to give up their aspirations for the top job and serve as the deputy? My guess is neither would be very keen,”\u00a0Verwoerd said.<\/p>\n
You can read the full column on News24<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n <\/p>\n
\n