{"id":166073,"date":"2017-03-26T19:00:59","date_gmt":"2017-03-26T17:00:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=166073"},"modified":"2017-03-26T18:02:33","modified_gmt":"2017-03-26T16:02:33","slug":"this-is-how-much-poorer-south-africans-have-become-over-the-past-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/finance\/166073\/this-is-how-much-poorer-south-africans-have-become-over-the-past-year\/","title":{"rendered":"This is how much poorer South Africans have become over the past year"},"content":{"rendered":"

Despite a stronger rand and a more upbeat attitude towards the South African economy by economists – South Africans are taking home less money than they were a year ago.<\/p>\n

The BankservAfrica Disposable Salary Index (BDSI) data for January 2017 shows that average real disposable salaries continued to decline, with the average take-home (adjusted for inflation) at R13,778 compared to R14,146 in January 2016.<\/p>\n

In nominal terms, average salaries increased by 3.9% – below the actual cost of living increase\u00a0– but South African salaries\u00a0remain under pressure due to the tax bracket increments, low salary increases and medical insurance costs.<\/p>\n

In real terms (adjusted for inflation), salaries are 2.5% lower than a year ago.<\/p>\n

Take-home salary 2012 – 2016<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Real salary changes 2012 – 2016<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Transactional data for February (reflecting the state of economic activity) showed a more positive turn.<\/p>\n

The flow of money through the South African financial system improved on both a monthly and quarterly basis, according to BankservAfrica, showing notably higher values than in January.<\/p>\n

However these metrics are still lower than they were a year ago, the group noted.<\/p>\n

While economic activity is picking up, new taxes coming into effect from April 1st will continue to put pressure on South African consumers, while the prospect of any interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank currently being up in the air.<\/p>\n

The table below outlines average salary trends year-on-year\u00a0in 2016, in both nominal and real terms.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Month<\/th>\nNominal Average Salary<\/th>\nReal Average Salary<\/th>\nNominal Growth<\/th>\nReal Growth<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
Jan 2016<\/td>\nR13 241<\/td>\nR14 146<\/td>\n+6.4%<\/td>\n+1.0%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Feb 2016<\/td>\nR13 356<\/td>\nR14 091<\/td>\n+6.1%<\/td>\n-0.1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mar 2016<\/td>\nR13 343<\/td>\nR13 912<\/td>\n+6.0%<\/td>\n-0.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Apr 2016<\/td>\nR13 385<\/td>\nR13 789<\/td>\n+7.3%<\/td>\n+0.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
May 2016<\/td>\nR13 252<\/td>\nR13 659<\/td>\n+6.7%<\/td>\n+0.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
June 2016<\/td>\nR13 314<\/td>\nR13 705<\/td>\n+5.8%<\/td>\n-0.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Jul 2016<\/td>\nR13 367<\/td>\nR13 760<\/td>\n+4.0%<\/td>\n-2.0%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Aug 2016<\/td>\nR13 472<\/td>\nR13 754<\/td>\n+3.3%<\/td>\n-2.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sep 2016<\/td>\nR13 900<\/td>\nR14 102<\/td>\n+5.8%<\/td>\n-0.2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Oct 2016<\/td>\nR13 749<\/td>\nR13 832<\/td>\n+3.6%<\/td>\n-2.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Nov 2016<\/td>\nR13 851<\/td>\nR13 926<\/td>\n+5.1%<\/td>\n-1.2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Dec 2016<\/td>\nR13 679<\/td>\nR13 720<\/td>\n+4.1%<\/td>\n-2.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Jan 2016<\/td>\nR13 752<\/td>\nR13 778<\/td>\n+3.9%<\/td>\n-2.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Rate cut hopes<\/strong><\/p>\n

In February and March 2017, South Africa’s economic prospects have picked up a bit, with more, often surprisingly positive economic data coming out from Stats SA.<\/p>\n

Two of the most positive economic metrics being a better-than-expected current account figure and a softer inflation point at 6.3%.<\/p>\n

The rand has reflected this positive data through a rally to under R12.50 to the dollar, egged on by global economic movements – particularly moved to hike rates by the US Fed.<\/p>\n

While this has led to hopes of a possible SARB rate cut, analysts at Nomura have warned investors not to get ahead of themselves.<\/p>\n

Nomura holds a generally bearish view on South Africa’s economy, finding the positively-spun growth narrative to be overplayed. According to the firm, South Africa has little to show for its growth numbers, while political risks linger, and no progress is being made on unemployment.<\/p>\n

The firm believes that, while there is room to consider possible cuts by SARB, the likelihood is that the bank will hold rates.<\/p>\n

“We see rates unchanged next week at 7.00% and a more neutral tone from the MPC
\nstatement, with inflation risks moving to balanced from being to the upside previously,” Nomura said.<\/p>\n

“We think the SARB framework remains in place and will be reinforced by a focus on the
\n\u2018uncomfortably high\u2019 level of long run inflation in the forecast as a barrier to cut. However, it is worth thinking through how the SARB could cut rates within this framework.<\/p>\n

“Put simply, the framework is flexible and well-designed enough to allow cuts but possibly not for the reasons the market expects,” it said.<\/p>\n

\n

Read:\u00a08 reasons why you shouldn\u2019t be too optimistic about SA\u2019s economy in 2017<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Despite positive moves in the rand and economists and investors becoming more upbeat about the South African economy – the reality remains that South Africans are taking home less money than they were a year ago.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":27055,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11121],"tags":[26,6722],"class_list":["post-166073","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance","tag-headline","tag-nomura"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/166073","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=166073"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/166073\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":166187,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/166073\/revisions\/166187"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/27055"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=166073"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=166073"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=166073"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}