{"id":167755,"date":"2017-03-31T19:00:24","date_gmt":"2017-03-31T17:00:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=167755"},"modified":"2017-03-31T18:46:09","modified_gmt":"2017-03-31T16:46:09","slug":"south-africas-democracy-is-at-a-crisis-point-as-zuma-plunges-the-knife","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/government\/167755\/south-africas-democracy-is-at-a-crisis-point-as-zuma-plunges-the-knife\/","title":{"rendered":"South Africa\u2019s democracy is at a crisis point as Zuma plunges the knife"},"content":{"rendered":"

South Africa has reached a crisis point in its political history that\u2019s been looming on the horizon for more than a year. In the dark of night \u2013 literally \u2013 President Jacob Zuma demonstrated his ruthlessness by firing finance minister, Pravin Gordhan, amid a 20-person<\/a> reshuffle of his government.<\/p>\n

The magnitude of what has happened shouldn\u2019t be underestimated. The Save South Africa campaign, echoing the sentiments of the country\u2019s progressive-minded constitutionalists, described Gordhan\u2019s dismissal as \u201can outrage\u201d<\/a>.<\/p>\n

There are two major concerns. The first is the impact on the economy, the second is a political and democratic one.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s not hyperbolic to suggest that what happens next \u2013 in the coming hours and days \u2013 will determine whether South Africa\u2019s hard-won democracy will survive or whether it will join the club of post-colonial calamities that have scarred the continent\u2019s past. The stakes couldn\u2019t be higher.<\/p>\n

Threat to the economy<\/h3>\n

In the last few months South Africa\u2019s economy had begun to show the very first signs of strengthening<\/a>. Gordhan, in fact, had just embarked on an investor roadshow to further encourage much-needed investment when, on Monday, Zuma ordered him to return<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Zuma has been waging a cold war against his finance minister for over a year<\/a>, causing uncertainty and undermining attempts to convince markets and rating agencies<\/a> alike that South Africa\u2019s government was doing all it could to shake the country out of the economic rut into which it has fallen since the global economic crisis<\/a> almost ten years ago.<\/p>\n

Gordhan and his team of public servants at National Treasury stood between Zuma and his cronies\u2019 most nefarious and venal plans \u2013 such as a nuclear deal<\/a> with Russia. As South Africa\u2019s former Public Protector (ombudsman) described in her seminal report, \u201cState of Capture<\/a>\u201d, the Gupta family and other rent-seeking opportunists have been exploiting Zuma and his family\u2019s weakness and taking control of important institutions and agencies of the state, such as the tax authority<\/a> (SARS), the national prosecuting authority<\/a> (NPA) and state energy utility, Eskom<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Gordhan has heroically withstood the intimidation and held the line. The rand has already plunged<\/a> on news of his removal. Market sentiment will collapse. And there\u2019s a high likelihood that perhaps as early as next week, rating agency Moody\u2019s will downgrade South Africa to junk status<\/a>. This will, in turn, increase the cost of government borrowing and set in motion a sequence of economic events that will cause great harm to the poorest and most vulnerable members of society.<\/p>\n

Political and democratic concerns<\/h3>\n

Gordhan\u2019s removal is an act of democratic disregard<\/a> and political as well as economic recklessness. While the two main opposition parties, the Democratic Alliance<\/a> and the Economic Freedom Fighters<\/a>, both reacted by tabling motions of no confidence<\/a> in the national assembly, the focus will now be on how the social democratic and left-leaning members of cabinet \u2013 the \u201cconstitutionalists\u201d \u2013 will respond to last night\u2019s events.<\/p>\n

They will be under pressure to resign in solidarity<\/a> with Gordhan, but they will also be anxious about vacating the space to the nationalist populists who now hold a big majority in government.<\/p>\n

But this is no longer about ideology. It\u2019s as several senior ANC insiders have described to me in recent days as being about \u201cthe corrupt versus the non-corrupt\u201d.<\/p>\n

That there will be a fight back against Zuma\u2019s reckless decision is beyond doubt. One of the fired ministers wrote to a friend late last night: \u201cwe will get the bastard\u201d. But to \u201cget Zuma\u201d they will have to show the same ruthlessness and courage, and they will have to act decisively and fast.<\/p>\n

All eyes will be on deputy president, Cyril Ramaphosa<\/a>, one of two contenders to succeed Zuma at the ANC\u2019s five-yearly national elective conference in December<\/a> this year.<\/p>\n

When Zuma told the ANC\u2019s top six leadership of his decision to remove Gordhan earlier this week, Ramaphosa and Secretary General Gwede Mantashe objected<\/a>. They rejected out of hand the \u201cevidence\u201d that Zuma put before them \u2013 a self-evidently fake piece of intelligence<\/a> that Zuma claimed showed that Gordhan was in London to persuade investment banks to help him topple Zuma.<\/p>\n

As Gordhan flew through the night on Monday, events intervened: ANC stalwart and liberation hero, Ahmed Kathrada, passed away<\/a>. Zuma was compelled to press the pause button on his reshuffle plans. At Kathrada\u2019s funeral on Wednesday, many of the ANC\u2019s top leadership gathered to hear former president Kgalema Motlanthe read out the letter from Kathrada that called for Zuma to resign<\/a>.<\/p>\n

When Gordhan was acknowledged, the mourners rose <\/a> as one in support: a powerful, as well as emotional moment. Zuma was conspicuous by his absence: it had been made clear to him by Kathrada family that he was not welcome<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Is South Africa\u2019s democracy under threat?<\/h3>\n

The ANC has never been more painfully divided, to the point where it\u2019s very future is threatened. It could split. It may not maintain its majority at the next national election in 2019. All bets are off.<\/p>\n

And, in the long run, this may not be a bad thing. As every hour has passed since Zuma won the ANC\u2019s presidency in December 2007<\/a>, it has declined as a progressive, stabilising force for good amid the turbulent, violent precariousness and social incohesion of South Africa\u2019s noisy democracy.<\/p>\n

Is that democracy now under threat? This is the biggest question now, which cannot be ignored.<\/p>\n

Is South Africa sleepwalking towards the door marked \u201cdictatorship\u201d? Repeatedly, the analyst community has underestimated Zuma. Repeatedly, he\u2019s fought back ruthlessly. He doesn\u2019t conform to the \u201cusual rules\u201d or the same political calculations. He cares only about his interests and those of his sponsors and of a band of \u2018comprador\u2019 nationalists.<\/p>\n

Zuma plunged his knife into Gordhan\u2019s back with ruthlessness but also cowardice: he didn\u2019t even have the decency to look his former comrade in the struggle, in the eye.<\/p>\n

Democratic leaders don\u2019t fire their finance ministers late at night, without even having the grace to contact the person being removed from office or without some kind of press conference. Close to midnight, the presidency published the list <\/a> of 20 new ministers and deputy ministers, while Zuma slipped away into the dark and onto his presidential jet to Durban.<\/p>\n

There have been many other notorious \u201cnights of the long knives<\/a>\u201d. Now Africa\u2019s biggest economy<\/a> has its own contribution to offer the annals of political history. Caused by a crisis in political leadership, Zuma\u2019s ruthless display of power could prompt an economic crisis that could easily send South Africa into a Brazil-style downward spiral<\/a> whose consequences are impossible to predict.<\/p>\n