South African President Jacob Zuma is likely to defeat a motion of no-confidence, irrespective of whether there\u2019s an open vote or secret ballot, as most members of the ruling party will close ranks around him, a senior opposition lawmaker said.<\/p>\n
The Democratic Alliance, the biggest opposition party, filed the no-confidence motion in April after Zuma\u2019s decision to fire Pravin Gordhan as finance minister prompted two ratings companies to downgrade the nation\u2019s foreign-currency debt to junk.<\/p>\n
While Zuma has been implicated in several scandals and faces mounting opposition within the ruling African National Congress, only a handful of its lawmakers have publicly said they will defy a party instruction and vote for his ouster.<\/p>\n
\u201cI\u2019m not optimistic at all that the ANC will vote Zuma out, secret ballot or no secret ballot,\u201d John Steenhuisen, the DA\u2019s chief whip in parliament, said in an interview in Cape Town. \u201cI do think there will be breakaways, abstentions, failures to pitch on the day and maybe one or two votes against Zuma. That would be a major loss for Zuma and the ANC.\u201d<\/p>\n
The ANC has governed Africa\u2019s most-industrialized economy since it took power in the nation\u2019s first multi-racial elections in 1994 and controls 62 percent of the 400 seats in parliament. Disgruntlement with Zuma\u2019s leadership contributed to the party\u2019s worst-ever electoral performance in a municipal vote in August last year.<\/p>\n
For the no-confidence motion to succeed, it will need the support of at least 50 ANC lawmakers, and all the opposition legislators.<\/p>\n
Speaker Decides<\/strong><\/p>\n The Constitutional Court ruled in June that Baleka Mbete, the speaker of the National Assembly, should decide the procedure for the motion, which requires a simple majority to pass. Mbete will give her decision before the Aug. 8 vote, her office said on Friday.<\/p>\n The United Democratic Movement had asked the court to instruct her to hold it by secret ballot, with opposition parties hoping that would entice ANC lawmakers to support Zuma\u2019s removal as they wouldn\u2019t risk losing their jobs.<\/p>\n The UDM and the Economic Freedom Fighters have warned they may go back to court should Mbete decide against a secret ballot.<\/p>\n The DA could join the lawsuit if Mbete\u2019s decision is irrational or unreasonable, according to Steenhuisen. While the case could delay the debate on the motion, the court may refuse to grant an interdict against it taking place on the grounds that it isn\u2019t urgent, he said.<\/p>\n \u201cAnother motion of no confidence could be tabled,\u201d Steenhuisen said. \u201cWe want the vote to proceed and we want the ANC to either dump Zuma or take ownership of him. That for us is the bigger argument here, rather than just the secret ballot.\u201d<\/p>\n Zuma, 75, who\u2019s due to step down as ANC leader in December and as national president in 2019, has defeated several previous attempts to oust him. Pressure has mounted on him to go following the leaking of thousands of emails to the local media that allegedly implicate him and his allies in the looting of billions of rand from state coffers. Zuma denies wrongdoing.<\/p>\n \u201cWe are looking at a very vast network, a multi-billion rand network, of mutually reinforcing interests,\u201d Steenhuisen said. \u201cThere are people who have an intrinsic interest in making sure that the taps don\u2019t run dry.\u201d<\/p>\n