{"id":199438,"date":"2017-09-19T07:58:32","date_gmt":"2017-09-19T05:58:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=199438"},"modified":"2017-09-19T07:58:32","modified_gmt":"2017-09-19T05:58:32","slug":"investors-say-yes-to-emerging-markets-but-no-to-south-africa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/business\/199438\/investors-say-yes-to-emerging-markets-but-no-to-south-africa\/","title":{"rendered":"Investors say yes to emerging markets &#8211; but no to South Africa"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>There\u2019s one emerging market country that\u00a0Michael Bolliger can\u2019t get bullish about at the moment: South Africa.<\/p>\n<p>President Jacob Zuma is fighting to stay out of court before the African National Congress votes for a new leader in December. He\u2019s pushing for his ex-wife to succeed him, but most analysts in a Bloomberg survey think\u00a0the nation\u2019s Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa probably will. It\u2019s more noise for a market that has already paid a price for political wrangling when it lost two of its investment ratings in April.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cPolitical decisions typically don\u2019t play a major role in our investment decisions, but in South Africa\u2019s case, it\u2019s an exception\u00a0due to the very binary nature of the outcome,\u201d Bolliger, who oversees more than $2 trillion for clients as the head of\u00a0emerging-market asset allocation at UBS Wealth Management, said in an interview in Bloomberg\u2019s office in Dubai.<\/p>\n<p>The rand, which was one of the world\u2019s best performing currencies for most of the first quarter, isn\u2019t among emerging nations\u2019 top 10 gainers this year.<\/p>\n<p>Aside from South Africa, Bolliger is bullish on developing equities, even after companies handed investors gains of about 20 percent in the second quarter of 2017 on a yearly basis, compared to about 12 percent for those based in the U.S. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has advanced almost 30 percent in 2017, boosting the gauge\u2019s price-to-earnings ratio over the next 12 months on Monday to the highest level since January 2010.<\/p>\n<p><strong>South Africa<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>He\u2019s underweight on credit, the rand and equities.<\/li>\n<li>\u201cThe political situation is going to weigh on growth and growth prospects\u201d<\/li>\n<li>\u201cThe ANC congress in December is going to be absolutely crucial. And moving into that, we might cut back some of our underweights. Political decisions typically don\u2019t play a major role in our investment decisions, but in this case, it is an exception, due to the very binary nature of the outcome\u201d<\/li>\n<li>\u201cIn a scenario in which Cyril Ramaphosa or another market-friendly leader wins and comes out as the new ANC leader, the rand could easily rally to 12.50 (per U.S. dollar) or even below, and the equity market could go through the roof\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Russia<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Bolliger is overweight the ruble and equities, which are pay attractive dividend yields and trade at decent valuations compared to many emerging markets<\/li>\n<li>\u201cWe like the Russian equity market because we believe the economy has finally turned the corner\u201d<\/li>\n<li>\u201cWe are also mindful that there are going to be elections next March, and we believe it\u2019s in the interest of President Vladimir Putin to assure economic momentum remains intact ahead of the election\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Turkey<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Bolliger is long on the lira and equities, as the country is seen as a story of economic growth.<\/li>\n<li>\u201cWe think the Turkish economy can sustainably grow at a rate of 4.5%\/5%. There are not so many countries in EMEA which can deliver similarly high growth\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Saudi Arabia<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Bolliger expects the Gulf state to be added to MSCI Inc\u2019s emerging markets list next year, with effective inclusion in 2019<\/li>\n<li>\u201cThat is going help investors understand the region better. There is going to be more intelligence, more research done because of that inclusion. We see it as a great opportunity for the entire region\u201d<\/li>\n<li>\u201cBut, at the same time, it means policy makers are under a closer monitoring from international investors, which can also result in higher financial market volatility\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Egypt<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Overweight in credit, macro-picture seen as \u201ca great story\u201d<\/li>\n<li>\u201cGrowth potential is high. The country has done several necessary adjustments, including its foreign exchange, and it presented a good economic program\u201d<\/li>\n<li>\u201cThere are some open issues, still, including access to electricity, red tape and a full free float of the currency\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>Read:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/government\/199412\/mkhize-may-south-africas-best-chance-at-reform-analyst\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">Mkhize may be South Africa\u2019s best chance at reform: analyst<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There\u2019s one emerging market country that\u00a0Michael Bolliger can\u2019t get bullish about at the moment: South Africa.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":59,"featured_media":168963,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9872],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-199438","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/199438","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/59"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=199438"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/199438\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":199440,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/199438\/revisions\/199440"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/168963"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=199438"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=199438"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=199438"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}