{"id":213875,"date":"2017-11-30T07:43:43","date_gmt":"2017-11-30T05:43:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=213875"},"modified":"2017-11-30T07:43:43","modified_gmt":"2017-11-30T05:43:43","slug":"chaos-threatens-anc-electoral-process","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/government\/213875\/chaos-threatens-anc-electoral-process\/","title":{"rendered":"Chaos threatens ANC electoral process"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Court challenges, allegations of vote rigging and outbreaks of violence – South Africa\u2019s ruling party is in disarray less than three weeks before it\u2019s scheduled to choose a new leader to replace President Jacob Zuma.<\/p>\n

The struggle for power has spawned such disorder that some analysts question whether the African National Congress can hold a credible election at the\u00a0Dec. 16-20 conference in Johannesburg in what\u2019s shaping up to be the most hotly contested internal vote since Nelson Mandela led the party to power in 1994.<\/p>\n

Leadership disputes have ended up in court in three of the nine provinces – KwaZulu-Natal, the Free State and North West – while the party\u2019s national officials stepped in to avert a lawsuit challenging the outcome of its internal election in the Eastern Cape province.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf all these legal disputes are not sorted out by the time the conference takes place, they will be transferred to the conference itself,\u201d said Mpumelelo Mkhabela, a political analyst at the University of Pretoria\u2019s Center of Governance Innovation.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere is a risk that after the conference that some people challenge its legality and the decisions that have been taken.\u201d<\/p>\n

Seven candidates are vying to replace Zuma as ANC leader and become the party\u2019s presidential candidate in 2019.<\/p>\n

Only Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa and Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, the former chairwoman of the African Union Commission and Zuma\u2019s ex-wife, appear to have a realistic chance of winning.<\/p>\n

Most party branches in the Northern Cape and Western Cape nominated Ramaphosa for the post, while Dlamini-Zuma received overwhelming backing in the Free State.<\/p>\n

The other six provinces will announce their preferences over the next few days.<\/p>\n

Unofficial branch nomination tallies obtained by Bloomberg, the Johannesburg-based Mail & Guardian newspaper and the Institute of Race Relations show Ramaphosa with the edge in the race, but the numbers aren\u2019t conclusive.<\/p>\n

Some bigger branches are entitled to send more than one delegate to the conference, and there\u2019s no guarantee they\u2019ll vote as they were instructed. Branch delegates will account for 90% of the conference\u2019s 5,240 total.<\/p>\n

The electoral process will probably be disputed if the official branch nomination results show that Ramaphosa commanded a decisive lead and Dlamini-Zuma, Zuma\u2019s preferred candidate, still wins the top post, said Darias Jonker, an Africa analyst at risk advisory firm Eurasia Group.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe likelihood of disruptions and delays at the conference is growing,\u201d Jonker said by email. If there is a dispute, the conference could be suspended until the first quarter of 2018, he said.<\/p>\n

Smooth Election<\/strong><\/p>\n

ANC Secretary-General Gwede Mantashe insists the conference will go ahead as planned and the election will run smoothly.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf there are court cases we will deal with them,\u201d Mantashe told reporters in Pretoria, the capital, on Nov. 14. \u201cWe can\u2019t plan the national conference on the basis of court cases. It must be a success. Anything that detracts us from succeeding, we will deal with it.\u201d<\/p>\n

Postponing the conference may leave Zuma as ANC president at a time when his administration has been rocked by repeated scandals and unnerve investors who want greater political and policy clarity.<\/p>\n

A delay would also heighten the risk of further downgrades to the country\u2019s credit rating and place pressure on the rand and the nation\u2019s bonds.<\/p>\n

Zuma\u2019s continued presence in office may undermine the ANC\u2019s preparations for the 2019 elections. Disgruntlement with his rule saw support for the party fall to an all-time low of 54% in last year\u2019s municipal elections.<\/p>\n

That allowed opposition coalitions to win control of Pretoria and the economic hub of Johannesburg in Gauteng, the nation\u2019s richest province.<\/p>\n

Given the bitter divisions, the ANC may struggle to pick a leadership that can unify the party and reconnect with voters.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere is a risk that the conference won\u2019t be credible,\u201d Ongama Mtimka, a political science lecturer at the Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University in the southern city of Port Elizabeth, said by phone.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s not certain that the loser will accept the outcome and remain within in the ANC.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

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Read:\u00a0One graph showing South Africa\u2019s credit rating history: 1994 \u2013 2017<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Court challenges, allegations of vote rigging and outbreaks of violence – South Africa\u2019s ruling party is in disarray less than three weeks before it\u2019s scheduled to choose a new leader to replace President Jacob Zuma.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":59,"featured_media":96265,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_sma_x_autopost_status":"idle","_sma_x_autopost_error":"","_sma_x_post_id":"","_sma_x_attempts":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-213875","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-government"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/213875","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/59"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=213875"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/213875\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":213881,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/213875\/revisions\/213881"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/96265"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=213875"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=213875"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=213875"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}