With the euphoria surrounding the election of Cyril Ramaphosa as national president now beginning to settle, attention has turned towards US president Donald Trump’s threat of a trade war with China.<\/p>\n
According to a Reuters<\/a> <\/strong>poll of 30 strategists taken, 3-5 April, the rand is now expected to remain steady against the dollar on the back of\u00a0\u00a0improving domestic economic growth, provided the US-China tariff tussle does not escalate and disturb global trade flows.<\/p>\n The strategists forecast the rand to remain resilient against the dollar, at around R11.93\/dollar<\/strong> leading into the fourth quarter, dipping slightly to R12.13\/dollar<\/strong> by this time next year.<\/p>\n “What has been driving our rand forecast is that the emerging market fundamental backdrop still looks strong, particularly the interest rate and growth differentials,” said Mike Keenan, strategist at Absa Capital.<\/p>\n “That should help the rand sustain this year\u2019s gains.”<\/p>\n He added, however, that some clarity over how much further tensions between Donald Trump\u2019s White House and China on trade will escalate is a wild card.<\/p>\n