{"id":249835,"date":"2018-06-06T11:27:32","date_gmt":"2018-06-06T09:27:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=249835"},"modified":"2018-06-06T11:27:59","modified_gmt":"2018-06-06T09:27:59","slug":"these-are-the-10-biggest-risks-for-south-africa-and-how-much-theyd-cost-the-country-each-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/banking\/249835\/these-are-the-10-biggest-risks-for-south-africa-and-how-much-theyd-cost-the-country-each-year\/","title":{"rendered":"These are the 10 biggest risks for South Africa – and how much they’d cost the country each year"},"content":{"rendered":"

A new report measures potential threats to leading cities across the world – from tropical storms and floods to market crashes and cyber attacks.<\/p>\n

The 279 cities in the Lloyd\u2019s City Risk Index together generate 41% of global GDP – $35 trillion – while they risk losing $547 billion in economic output annually as a result of 22 threats which\u00a0Lloyd\u2019s has separated into five categories: finance, economics and trade; geopolitics and security; health and humanity; natural catastrophe and climate and technology and space.<\/p>\n

The largest threats globally are: market crash ($103.3 billion), interstate conflict ($80.0 billion) and tropical windstorms ($62.6 billion).<\/p>\n

Man-made threats account for 59% of the total, while climate-related risks account for $123 billion of lost GDP \u2013 a sum that will grow as extreme events increase in frequency and severity, the group said.<\/p>\n

These are the 22 biggest threats to global cities:<\/strong><\/div>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Three cities which stand to lose the most GDP through risk worldwide are Tokyo ($24.3 billion), New York ($14.8 billion) and Manila ($13.3 billion). The ten cities with the highest exposure could together lose $126.8 billion per annum, the report said.<\/p>\n

Asian cities stand to lose the most GDP to risk, accounting for $241.28 billion or 44% of the global total, with tropical storms highlighted as being the costliest single risk for the region at $59.1 billion.<\/p>\n

North American cities are at risk of losing $93 billion each year, and European cities, $70.3 billion.<\/p>\n

In both regions, a market crash is highlighted as the single costliest risk factor. Cities in the Middle East and Africa could lose $97.2 billion of their GDP, with interstate conflict the costliest risk. Latin American cities make up less than 10% of the global total with $44.7 billion at stake.<\/p>\n

Top 10 cities at risk<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
#<\/th>\nCity<\/th>\nCost to GDP<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
1<\/td>\nTokyo<\/td>\n$24.3 billion<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/td>\nNew York<\/td>\n$14.8 billion<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/td>\nManila<\/td>\n$13.3 billion<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/td>\nTaipei<\/td>\n$12.9 billion<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/td>\nIstanbul<\/td>\n$12.7 billion<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/td>\nOsaka<\/td>\n$12.4 billion<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7<\/td>\nLos Angeles<\/td>\n$11.6 billion<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8<\/td>\nShanghai<\/td>\n$8.5\u00a0billion<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
9<\/td>\nLondon<\/td>\n$8.4 billion<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10<\/td>\nBaghdad<\/td>\n$7.9 billion<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

For South Africa, the report covers the major risks facing the country, with civil conflict at the top of the list at a cost of $580 million to GDP.<\/p>\n

Sovereign default and a market crash are also other major potential costs to the country. Overall, major risks faced in the country’s major cities amounts to $2.34 billion (R30 billion), or 1.45% of GDP.<\/p>\n

Top 10 risks for South Africa
\n<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
#<\/th>\nRisks<\/th>\nCost to GDP<\/th>\nZAR<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
1<\/td>\nCivil conflict<\/td>\n$580 million<\/td>\nR7.4 billion<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/td>\nSovereign default<\/td>\n$440 million<\/td>\nR5.6 billion<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/td>\nMarket crash<\/td>\n$420 million<\/td>\nR5.4 billion<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/td>\nHuman pandemic<\/td>\n$380 million<\/td>\nR4.9 billion<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/td>\nFlood<\/td>\n$111 million<\/td>\nR1.4 billion<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/td>\nDrought<\/td>\n$110 million<\/td>\nR1.4 billion<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7<\/td>\nCyber attack<\/td>\n$110 million<\/td>\nR1.4 billion<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8<\/td>\nSocial unrest<\/td>\n$70 million<\/td>\nR897 million<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
9<\/td>\nPower outage<\/td>\n$40 million<\/td>\nR512 million<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10<\/td>\nTerrorism<\/td>\n$20 million<\/td>\nR256 million<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Four local cities are featured on the list including Johannesburg, Cape Town, Pretoria and Durban. Joburg has global ranking of 143 out of 279 cities.<\/p>\n

Although Johannesburg has a similar sized GDP to Lagos, it stands to lose only $1.07 billion of GDP output annually as opposed to Lagos\u2019 $4.42 billion.<\/p>\n

“Like many cities in this region, there are high levels of wealth disparity in Johannesburg that makes civil conflict the city\u2019s costliest risk at $276 million.<\/p>\n

“While there are programmes aimed at improving living and working conditions for low income residents of the city, around 20% of Johannesburg residents live in poverty,” the report noted.<\/p>\n

It added that, increasingly, sovereign debt is becoming a threat to economic growth after Standard & Poor\u2019s and Fitch downgraded South Africa\u2019s sovereign credit rating to junk class in 2017.<\/p>\n

“This has led to higher borrowing costs, which will impact on living costs and services in the country\u2019s cities. It remains to be seen whether the new president, Cyril Ramaphosa, can restore faith in South Africa\u2019s institutions, and restore investor and ratings agency confidence,” Lloyd\u2019s said.<\/p>\n

Cape Town, meanwhile, is threatened by drought, with its GDP risk figure put at $490 million, while Pretoria is at $410 million, and Durban at $370 million.<\/p>\n

\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
#<\/th>\nCity<\/th>\nCost to GDP<\/th>\nZAR<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
1<\/td>\nJohannesburg<\/td>\n$1 070 million<\/td>\nR13.8 billion<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/td>\nCape Town<\/td>\n$490 million<\/td>\nR6.3 billion<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/td>\nPretoria<\/td>\n$410 million<\/td>\nR5.3 billion<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/td>\nDurban<\/td>\n$370 million<\/td>\nR4.8 billion<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The table below shows the biggest risk factors for Johannesburg.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\n

Read: This is what South Africa could look like in 2022 under Ramaphosa<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A new report measures potential threats to leading cities across the world – from tropical storms and floods to market crashes and cyber attacks.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":50959,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[961],"tags":[26,10423],"class_list":["post-249835","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-banking","tag-headline","tag-lloyds"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/249835","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=249835"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/249835\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":249929,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/249835\/revisions\/249929"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50959"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=249835"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=249835"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=249835"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}