{"id":288098,"date":"2018-11-29T13:05:48","date_gmt":"2018-11-29T11:05:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=288098"},"modified":"2018-11-29T13:24:48","modified_gmt":"2018-11-29T11:24:48","slug":"heres-what-will-likely-happen-to-the-rand-in-2019-according-to-the-reserve-bank","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/finance\/288098\/heres-what-will-likely-happen-to-the-rand-in-2019-according-to-the-reserve-bank\/","title":{"rendered":"Here&#8217;s what will happen to the rand in 2019, according to the Reserve Bank"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Continued tightening in global financial conditions, a change in investor sentiment towards emerging markets, escalating trade conflicts, geo-political developments, and idiosyncratic risks.<\/p>\n<p>These remain the key risks to the rand, according to Daniel Mminele, deputy governor of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), who was <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.resbank.co.za\/Lists\/Speeches\/Attachments\/543\/Deputy%20Governor%20Mminele%20Bloomberg%20FX18%20Johannesburg%20South%20Africa%20Economy%20in%20Focus%20event.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">speaking<\/a> <\/strong>at the Bloomberg FX\u201918 conference on Wednesday (28 November).<\/p>\n<p>Because of these risk factors,\u00a0Mminele said it is likely that the rand along with other emerging market currencies will remain volatile heading into 2019.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;As a consequence of the recent volatility, exchange rate forecasts remain widely dispersed,&#8221; he said.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Between this quarter and the third quarter of 2019, the exchange rate of the rand is expected to <strong>average R14.50 to the US dollar<\/strong> \u2013 this is according to Bloomberg median forecasts.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;However, the difference between the most optimistic and the most pessimistic survey participants on the exchange rate forecast for the first quarter of 2019 is almost R3.00 \u2013 I have little doubt that one of the participants somewhere within that range will be correct.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Mminele added that such a wide dispersion around the median forecast over such a short forecast horizon is representative of the uncertainty that has become an inherent part of South African&#8217;s lives.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;This uncertainty adds significant complexity to the conduct of monetary policy, the most recent outcome of our monetary policy meeting and the finely balanced decision being a good case in point,&#8221; he said.<\/p>\n<p>Because trade is so volatile,\u00a0Mminele said that the monetary policy committee will remain flexible in its responses.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;We will continue to allow the exchange rate to absorb the initial shocks, and focus our policy actions on addressing second-round price effects,&#8221; he said.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;It is important that policy decisions should not be informed by short-run market developments in either direction.&#8221;<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>Read: <a href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/finance\/287258\/what-oil-at-50-a-barrel-means-for-south-africa-and-the-world-economy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">What oil at $50 a barrel means for South Africa and the world economy<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Daniel Mminele, deputy governor of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) recently spoke on where the rand is heading in 2019.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":212411,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11121],"tags":[26],"class_list":["post-288098","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance","tag-headline"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/288098","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=288098"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/288098\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":288112,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/288098\/revisions\/288112"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/212411"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=288098"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=288098"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=288098"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}