{"id":290572,"date":"2018-12-15T11:01:26","date_gmt":"2018-12-15T09:01:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=290572"},"modified":"2018-12-14T11:33:15","modified_gmt":"2018-12-14T09:33:15","slug":"a-second-wave-of-ramaphoria-may-be-on-the-way-and-it-could-hit-the-rand","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/finance\/290572\/a-second-wave-of-ramaphoria-may-be-on-the-way-and-it-could-hit-the-rand\/","title":{"rendered":"A second-wave of Ramaphoria may be on the way &#8211; and it could hit the rand"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>A second dose of &#8216;Ramaphoria&#8217; could be in store for the rand, according to a Bloomberg survey of executives that found domestic politics would be the most significant issue affecting currency moves in the next year.<\/p>\n<p>A decisive victory for the ruling African National Congress in the May 2019 elections \u2014 followed by policy improvements \u2014 could see the currency strengthen about 6% from its current level, according to Elna Moolman, an economist at Standard Bank and a participant in the survey.<\/p>\n<p>Cyril Ramaphosa\u2019s victory in the ANC leadership vote in December last year sent the rand to a three-year high against the dollar in February, before the currency turned as emerging markets came under strain.<\/p>\n<p>The survey captured the opinions of more than 160 local bankers, CEOs, CFOs, corporate treasurers, foreign-exchange and hedge-fund executives who attended Bloomberg\u2019s Foreign Exchange Summit FX18 last month in Johannesburg.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>More than half of participants said South Africa\u2019s political environment would be the most important local issue affecting the rand in 2019<\/li>\n<li>Only 22% said the South African Reserve Bank would influence the rand\u2019s direction<\/li>\n<li>More than a third of respondents said global economic growth and market volatility were the most important macro factors affecting the rand today, while 31% said it was foreign investment in South Africa<\/li>\n<li>Africa\u2019s most-industrialized economy is particularly vulnerable to capital outflows as it relies on portfolio investments to fund a persistent current-account deficit. Non-resident have already sold a net R49.9 billion ($3.5 billion) of South African equities and 64 billion rand of bonds, the most in record since Bloomberg started tracking the data in 1998<\/li>\n<li>About 21% said US monetary policy was the most important factor affecting the rand, while 11% opted for trade friction and tariffs<\/li>\n<li>Nearly three-quarters of the participants said they expect the rand-dollar exchange rate to end 2019 within the broad range of R12 to R15\u00a0 per dollar; 26% predict the rand would strengthen to below R12, and only 5% saw if heading above R15.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Rising-risks.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-290574 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Rising-risks.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"800\" height=\"455\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Rising-risks.jpg 800w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Rising-risks-300x171.jpg 300w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/12\/Rising-risks-768x437.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>Read: <a href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/finance\/290484\/this-is-the-average-salary-in-south-africa-right-now\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">This is the average salary in South Africa right now<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A second dose of &#8216;Ramaphoria&#8217; could be in store for the rand, according to a Bloomberg survey of executives that found domestic politics would be the most significant issue affecting currency moves in the next year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":59,"featured_media":103707,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11121],"tags":[26],"class_list":["post-290572","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance","tag-headline"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/290572","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/59"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=290572"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/290572\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":290980,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/290572\/revisions\/290980"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/103707"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=290572"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=290572"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=290572"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}