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<\/a><\/p>\nThe Ipsos poll is based on the face-to-face interviews with 3,600 demographically representative South Africans.<\/p>\n
Ipsos noted that a large number of eligible voters have not registered to take part in the election, while many who are registered simply won’t turn up.<\/p>\n
According to the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC), there are 26.7 million registered voters.\u00a0 Of South Africa’s 57.7 million people, one third are under the age of 15, and ineligible to vote.<\/p>\n
This means there are over 10 million eligible voters who are sitting the elections out.<\/p>\n
Ipsos said it expects that between eight and nine million voters won’t turn up on the day, leaving the country with around only 18 million votes on the day – less than half of all eligible voters.<\/p>\n
Low turnout would affect the ANC most negatively, Ipsos said, but would be a boon for the DA and EFF.<\/p>\n
Notably, for the EFF, it could prove to be a remarkable success. Speaking to The Daily Maverick<\/a><\/strong>, Ipsos’ Mari Harris said that its latest numbers show that the EFF could even become the leading opposition party in three provinces.<\/p>\n The poll suggests that the EFF could pip the DA to become the official opposition in Gauteng, Limpopo and the North West.<\/p>\n A third of the EFF’s supporters live in Gauteng, the report said.<\/p>\n Other polls<\/strong><\/p>\n The Ipsos poll differs from a separate poll run by the Institute of Race Relations, which found that the ANC was likely to lose more support in the 2019 elections<\/a><\/strong> – though both see the EFF as the biggest gainer.<\/p>\n According to the IRR, the ANC currently stands on 54.7% support nationally, down 1.3 percentage points from December (56%); the DA currently stands on 21.8% nationally, up 3.1 percentage points from December (18%); and EFF currently stands on 12.2% nationally, up 1.2 percentage points from December (11%).<\/p>\n In Gauteng, the ANC is well below a majority, the IRR said, with EFF growth remaining high, while in the Western Cape, the DA majority is on a knife edge, with smaller parties showing some growth.<\/p>\n A poll by Afrobarometer<\/a><\/strong> in late 2018 found that the ANC is also far ahead of other parties, though it is still polling lower than before the presidency of Jacob Zuma.<\/p>\n Respondents to its survey, which asked the question ‘If you were to vote tomorrow, who would you vote for?’ largely sided with the ANC (48%), with the DA and EFF getting equal support at 11% each.<\/p>\n However, with the Afrobarometer poll, it’s worth noting that a large portion of respondents (16%) refused to answer, while 11% were unsure of who they would vote for. Discounting these responses pushes the ANC’s share of the vote to 65.8%, with the DA and EFF at 15% each.<\/p>\n