{"id":314200,"date":"2019-04-30T12:29:53","date_gmt":"2019-04-30T10:29:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=314200"},"modified":"2019-04-30T12:32:06","modified_gmt":"2019-04-30T10:32:06","slug":"the-anc-could-drop-below-50-in-next-months-election-poll","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/government\/314200\/the-anc-could-drop-below-50-in-next-months-election-poll\/","title":{"rendered":"The ANC could drop below 50% in next month&#8217;s election: poll"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The latest pre-election poll released by the Institute of Race Relations (IRR) shows that the ANC would garner 49.5% of support with days to go before the 2019 national election.<\/p>\n<p>This snapshot pushes to a maximum of 51% of the vote if two thirds of registered voters cast their ballot on the day.<\/p>\n<p>The IRR poll results show the DA securing 21.3% of the vote, hitting 24% on a 71.9% voter turnout. The EFF showed a marked increase to 14.9% of the vote, dropping to 14% on a lower voter turnout.<\/p>\n<p>The ANC had a 62.2% share of the vote in the 2014 national election, while the DA secured 22% of the vote and the EFF scored 6.4% in the election.<\/p>\n<p>Explaining the drop in ANC support, the IRR said that a host of issues are likely to have had a snowball effect on the governing party.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;In the eight weeks since (the last IRR poll), all parties have rolled out their election campaigns proper. The ANC, in particular, has been beset by ongoing problems.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;These include a series of damning revelations about the party\u2019s secretary general, the continued detailing of various corrupt practices before the Zondo Commission of Inquiry, and a series of national service protests (of which the \u201cshutdown\u201d of Alexandra Township in Gauteng concerned the ANC and DA directly),&#8221; the IRR said.<\/p>\n<p>The group also noted that the prospect of further load shedding still remains very real &#8211; and all these issues are compounded by a lacklustre ANC campaign.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;None of these factors, in and of themselves, are likely to have impacted definitively on the support for any one party \u2013 precedent suggests it takes much time for a single scandal or event to fully manifest in a change in voting behaviour \u2013 but collectively they are likely to have had some impact,&#8221; it said.<\/p>\n<p>The table below outlines the trend in IRR election polls since September 2018, based on the total national vote (ie, raw poll data, not adjusted for voter turnout).<\/p>\n<p><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/IRR-polls.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-314204\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/IRR-polls.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"911\" height=\"416\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/IRR-polls.png 911w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/IRR-polls-300x137.png 300w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/IRR-polls-768x351.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 911px) 100vw, 911px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The poll was conducted between 18 April and 25 April 2019. The sample was fully demographically representative and comprised only registered voters. A total of 2,375 respondents were questioned.<\/p>\n<p>As with all pre-election polls, the findings are not a prediction, but represent a snapshot of the electorate as they stand at any given period of time.<\/p>\n<p>The IRR itself stresses this point, saying that the numbers presented in the poll &#8220;are not absolutely definitive&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p>The group further points to a 2.8% national margin of error, which means, for example, the DA \u2013 which comes out with 21.3% \u2013 could be on 18.5% or 24.1%.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;In the last few weeks of an election one does see movement among the electorate, as undecided voters make their final choice and bigger parties,&#8221; the IRR said. &#8221; This poll came out of the field with 14 days of the election period still to go, a time during which further change is likely.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The full table of parties and responses is below:<\/p>\n<p><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/IRR-tables.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-314206\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/IRR-tables.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1092\" height=\"494\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/IRR-tables.png 1092w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/IRR-tables-300x136.png 300w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/IRR-tables-768x347.png 768w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/IRR-tables-1024x463.png 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1092px) 100vw, 1092px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Trends<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Looking at all pre-election polls published in 2019 so far, they all show the same key trends: the ANC losing support from its position in 2014, with the DA also dropping (though many polls see the party&#8217;s support base remaining fairly flat).<\/p>\n<p>The EFF, meanwhile, is expected to show significant growth &#8211; from smaller increased of around 3 percentage points, to more than doubling.<\/p>\n<p>While every independent poll follows this similar trend, the DA&#8217;s own internal polling tells the opposite story, according to <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.news24.com\/elections\/news\/gauteng-astounding-numbers-from-da-internal-polling-shows-the-party-is-closing-gap-on-the-anc-20190430\">News24<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>The party&#8217;s internal polling shows gains among the electorate, polling between 24% and 26%, with the ANC between 56% and 59%.<\/p>\n<p><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/Latest-election-polls.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-314202\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/Latest-election-polls.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"991\" height=\"491\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/Latest-election-polls.png 991w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/Latest-election-polls-300x149.png 300w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/04\/Latest-election-polls-768x381.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 991px) 100vw, 991px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>Read: <a href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/government\/313626\/latest-election-poll-shows-the-da-and-anc-in-trouble\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">Latest election poll shows the DA and ANC in trouble<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The latest pre-election poll released by the Institute of Race Relations (IRR) shows that the ANC would garner 49.5% of support with days to go before the 2019 national election.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":122531,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[26,9583],"class_list":["post-314200","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-government","tag-headline","tag-irr"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/314200","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=314200"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/314200\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":314218,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/314200\/revisions\/314218"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/122531"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=314200"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=314200"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=314200"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}