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<\/a><\/p>\nPredictions vs outcome<\/strong><\/p>\n Since the start of 2019, several research groups and data outlets posted poll results, providing a snapshot of how the country was feeling to any given party.<\/p>\n While pre-election polls are not predictions per se, they are used to establish underlying trends among the electorate and give a sense for how things will go for the political parties contesting the vote.<\/p>\n Across all of 2019’s polls, the key trend that emerged was that of a big drop in support for the ANC, which ended up being true in the final tally.<\/p>\n While outlets varied in the number of votes the governing party would get (ranging between 50% and 60%), the polls averaged at 56.4%. The party ended with 57.5%.<\/p>\n For the DA, the polls also predicted a major drop in support for the party – however, this loss of support was widely overestimated.<\/p>\n The polls averaged around 18.5% for the DA, while the party emerged with 20.8% in the final count. While this is still a drop in support, it is not as large as many had anticipated.<\/p>\n When it comes to the EFF – which contested their second national election – the polls saw a much larger jump in support than the outcome presented.<\/p>\n Pre-election polls pegged the EFF’s support base between 9.5% and 15%, averaging at 11.5%. The final outcome was much closer to the average than some of the individual polls, which were expecting the final vote share around 14%.<\/p>\n The EFF emerged with a 10.8% outcome.<\/p>\n Among the pre-election polls, the Intellidex poll emerged as being the most accurate. The poll was not a survey or a snapshot of a registered voter sample, but rather a representation on the thoughts of economists, investors and other players in the market.<\/p>\n The IRR and Ipsos also presented adjusted data for low-turnout scenarios.<\/p>\n With a turnout at 65% in 2019, the pre-election polls overestimated the low turnout scenarios entirely, putting the expected turnout at 70%.<\/p>\n Provincial<\/strong><\/p>\n Polls run by the Institute of Race Relations (IRR) paid particular focus to key provinces as well, with results showing a possibility of two hung provinces (Gauteng and KwaZulu Natal) where the ANC would lose its majority, while the DA would retain the Western Cape.<\/p>\n The final outcome showed that only the Western Cape projection was correct – though the race in Gauteng was definitely close.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n