{"id":355375,"date":"2019-11-19T14:58:49","date_gmt":"2019-11-19T12:58:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=355375"},"modified":"2019-11-19T14:58:49","modified_gmt":"2019-11-19T12:58:49","slug":"the-truth-and-lies-about-progress-in-south-africa-since-1994","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/government\/355375\/the-truth-and-lies-about-progress-in-south-africa-since-1994\/","title":{"rendered":"The truth and lies about progress in South Africa since 1994"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>How has South Africa fared since its first democratic elections in 1994? That\u2019s the question a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.dpme.gov.za\/news\/SiteAssets\/Pages\/25-Year-Review-Launch\/Towards%20A%2025%20Year%20Review.pdf\">new government report<\/a>\u00a0released by the country\u2019s presidency sets out to answer.<\/p>\n<p>The introduction says it \u201creflects both the highlights and lowlights\u201d of the last 25 years.<\/p>\n<p>The country\u2019s president, Cyril Ramaphosa, launched the report at the\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.ump.ac.za\/\">University of Mpumalanga<\/a>\u00a0in the north-east of the country on 8 November 2019. During his speech he\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=bMOK0iOD1xA&amp;feature=youtu.be&amp;t=950\">made a number of claims about the government\u2019s achievements.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Did Ramaphosa get his facts right? This report interrogates five statements about university enrollment, health, the economy, inequality and access to electricity.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Claim: Total university enrollment was &#8220;around 300,000&#8221; in 1994.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Verdict:<\/strong> <strong><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">Incorrect<\/span><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>During his speech, Ramaphosa\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/bMOK0iOD1xA?t=260\">claimed<\/a>\u00a0that total university enrollment increased from \u201caround 300,000\u201d in 1994 to \u201cover one million\u201d in 2019.<\/p>\n<p>The latest figures from the\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.dhet.gov.za\/\">Department of Higher Education and Training<\/a>\u00a0show that\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.dhet.gov.za\/SiteAssets\/Statistics%20on%20Post-School%20Education%20and%20Training%20in%20South%20Africa%20%202017.pdf#page=26\">1,036,984 students<\/a>\u00a0were enrolled in 26 universities in 2017.<\/p>\n<p>But Ramaphosa\u2019s claim that enrollment was \u201caround 300,000\u201d in 1994 is not supported by the new\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.dpme.gov.za\/news\/SiteAssets\/Pages\/25-Year-Review-Launch\/Towards%20A%2025%20Year%20Review.pdf#page=75\">report<\/a>\u00a0released by the presidency.<\/p>\n<p>The report says there were 495,356 students enrolled in university in 1994. This number has been previously reported by the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20190403170759\/http:\/\/www.dhet.gov.za\/SiteAssets\/Latest%20News\/White%20paper%20for%20post-school%20education%20and%20training.pdf#page=47\">higher education department<\/a>. A slightly higher figure of\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.che.ac.za\/sites\/default\/files\/publications\/SA_HE_10years_Nov2004.pdf#page=80\">525,000<\/a>\u00a0has been reported by the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.che.ac.za\/\">Council on Higher Education<\/a>, an independent statutory body.<\/p>\n<p>Ramaphosa put the figure at\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/africacheck.org\/reports\/state-of-the-nation-address-1-president-cyril-ramaphosas-claims-weighed-up\/\">500,000<\/a>\u00a0during his first state of the nation address in 2018.<\/p>\n<p>No available estimates put it at \u201caround 300,000\u201d in 1994. We rate Ramaphosa\u2019s claim as incorrect.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Claim: 45,500 people received antiretroviral therapy from the public health sector in 2004.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Verdict:<\/strong> <strong><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">Incorrect<\/span><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u201cAccess to antiretroviral therapy in the public health sector has grown from 45,500 patients in 2004 to over 4.7 million in 2019,\u201d said Ramaphosa.<\/p>\n<p>The report cites a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/sajhivmed.org.za\/index.php\/hivmed\/article\/view\/694\/980\">2017 journal article<\/a>\u00a0as the source of the figure for 2004. A\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/sajhivmed.org.za\/index.php\/hivmed\/article\/viewFile\/694\/980\/3592\">table<\/a>\u00a0in the article shows that 45,500 people were on\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.who.int\/hiv\/topics\/treatment\/en\/\">antiretroviral treatment<\/a>\u00a0in 2004.<\/p>\n<p>However, not all were in the public sector, as Ramaphosa claimed. The figure was estimated using both statistics from the public sector and surveys which measured the number of people treated in the private sector and by non-governmental organisations (NGOs).<\/p>\n<p>Africa Check spoke to\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.publichealth.uct.ac.za\/dr-leigh-johnson-0\">Dr Leigh Johnson<\/a>, one of the article\u2019s authors and an epidemiologist at the University of Cape Town\u2019s\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.publichealth.uct.ac.za\/phfm_centre-infectious-disease-epidemiology-and-research\">Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Research<\/a>. He said that the article did not calculate a breakdown showing private and public patients.<\/p>\n<p>For this he pointed us to an\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/sajhivmed.org.za\/index.php\/hivmed\/article\/view\/156\/260\">earlier paper<\/a>\u00a0of his from 2012. In it, Johnson estimated that there were 47,500 people on antiretroviral treatment in 2004. Of these, only 9,600 were receiving their treatment through the public sector. The vast majority of patients (80%) received their treatment from the private sector or NGO programmes.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Number of patients receiving antiretroviral treatment in South Africa in 2004<\/strong><\/p>\n<div class=\"bt_table\">\n<div class=\"table-responsive\"><table class=\"table\" width=\"100%\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"6\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<th bgcolor=\"#CCCCCC\" width=\"40%\">Provider<\/th>\n<th style=\"text-align: center;\" bgcolor=\"#CCCCCC\" width=\"30%\">Number<\/th>\n<th style=\"text-align: center;\" bgcolor=\"#CCCCCC\" width=\"30%\">Percentage<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Public sector<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\">9 600<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\">20.2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Private sector<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\">34 100<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\">71.8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>NGO Programme<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\">3 900<\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\">8.2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><strong>Total<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>47 500<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>100.0%<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><em>Source<\/em><strong><em>:\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><em><a href=\"https:\/\/sajhivmed.org.za\/index.php\/hivmed\/article\/view\/156\/260\">Access to antiretroviral treatment in South Africa, 2004 \u2013 2011<\/a><\/em>\u00a0(<i>Note: Numbers are rounded to the nearest 100. Due to rounding, the rows may not sum to the total.<\/i>)<\/p>\n<p>Johnson said his 2012 estimate of the number of people on antiretroviral treatment in South Africa in 2004 (47,500) differed from the newer estimate (45,500) due to a change in methodology.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe methods we have used to estimate these numbers have changed over time. Previously we were just taking the raw data and we weren\u2019t trying to fit any kind of statistical model to it,\u201d he explained. \u201cWhat we have done in the more recent paper is to try to fit smooth time trends to the data. That process has led to some change in the numbers.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The latest\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/africacheck.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/DoH_-annual-report.pdf\">annual report<\/a>\u00a0from the department of health shows that there were 4,629,831 people on antiretroviral treatment as of 31 March 2019.<\/p>\n<p>Ramaphosa was incorrect about the number of people on antiretroviral treatment in the public health sector in 2004.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Claim: The size of the South African economy over the past 25 years has doubled.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Verdict:<\/strong> <strong><span style=\"color: #008000;\">Correct<\/span><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Commenting on the importance of human resources and talent in South Africa, Ramaphosa\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/bMOK0iOD1xA?t=588\">claimed<\/a> that the size of the country\u2019s economy has doubled over the past 25 years.<\/p>\n<p>\u00b1The size of a country\u2019s economy is measured by its gross domestic product (GDP). This is the value of all goods and services produced in a given period, usually a year.<\/p>\n<p>GDP can be measured by using current or nominal prices, which take into account inflation over the years. But it\u2019s important to separate inflation from real economic growth,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wits.ac.za\/staff\/academic-a-z-listing\/r\/jannierossouwwitsacza\/\">Prof Jannie Rossouw<\/a>, head of the school of economic and business sciences at\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wits.ac.za\/\">Wits University<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/africacheck.org\/2019\/03\/11\/checking-the-claim-again-and-again-until-they-get-it-right\/\">previously told<\/a>\u00a0Africa Check.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/\">World Bank<\/a>\u00a0data based on constant or real GDP \u2013 where the effect of inflation is removed \u2013 shows that South Africa\u2019s economy\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/data.worldbank.org\/indicator\/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD?end=2018&amp;locations=ZA&amp;start=1994\">grew<\/a>\u00a01.9 times from US$225.6 billion in 1994 to $429.8 billion in 2018. (<i>Note: Figures from 2019 are not yet available.<\/i>)<\/p>\n<p>Based on this data, Ramaphosa\u2019s claim is correct.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Claim: South Africa remains the most unequal society in the world.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Verdict:<\/strong> <strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">Unproven<\/span><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Inequality is commonly measured with the Gini coefficient. This is a measure that provides a figure between 0 (perfect equality) to 1 (perfect inequality).<\/p>\n<p>According to the World Bank, South Africa had a Gini coefficient of\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/documents.worldbank.org\/curated\/en\/530481521735906534\/pdf\/124521-REV-OUO-South-Africa-Poverty-and-Inequality-Assessment-Report-2018-FINAL-WEB.pdf#page=16\">0.63<\/a>\u00a0in 2015. When\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.statssa.gov.za\/\">Statistics South Africa<\/a>\u00a0calculated the figure using the same data, the result was\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.statssa.gov.za\/publications\/Report-03-10-06\/Report-03-10-062015.pdf#page=33\">0.64<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cNo other country in the database maintained by the World Bank had this level of Gini coefficient,\u201d Victor Sulla, a senior economist with the World Bank,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/africacheck.org\/2019\/11\/07\/analysis-baleka-mbete-the-world-bank-and-that-al-jazeera-interview\/\">told<\/a>\u00a0Africa Check.<\/p>\n<p>But the database consists of only 164 countries. The data needed to measure inequality for several countries is unavailable,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.uwc.ac.za\/biography\/pages\/may.aspx\">Prof Julian May<\/a>, former member of the\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.statssa.gov.za\/?page_id=332\">South African Statistics Council<\/a>, told Africa Check.<\/p>\n<p>This includes countries such as Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, which are known to have high inequality levels.<\/p>\n<p>We rate the claim unproven because data is not available for all the countries in the world. May said that it would be correct to say that South Africa is the most unequal of the countries for which there is data.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Claim: 84% of all households in South Africa have electricity.<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Verdict:<\/strong> <strong><span style=\"color: #008000;\">Correct<\/span><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>According to Statistics South Africa,\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.statssa.gov.za\/publications\/P0318\/P03182018.pdf#page=48\">84.7%<\/a>\u00a0of households were connected to the mains electricity supply in 2018. This was up slightly from\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.statssa.gov.za\/publications\/P0318\/P03182017.pdf#page=40\">84.4%<\/a>\u00a0in 2017.<\/p>\n<p>Just\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.statssa.gov.za\/publications\/P0318\/P03182018.pdf#page=52\">65.7%<\/a>\u00a0of households rated their electricity supply as \u201cgood\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis represents a decline of 1.8 percentage points since 2010 when 67.5% rated electricity supply services as \u2018good\u2019,\u201d the Statistics South Africa survey\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.statssa.gov.za\/publications\/P0318\/P03182018.pdf#page=52\">said<\/a>.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><em>This report was written by Africa Check, a non-partisan fact-checking organisation. Fact checking by Kate Wilkinson, Cayley Clifford, and Naphtali Khumalo. <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/africacheck.org\/reports\/fact-checked-president-cyril-ramaphosas-claims-about-progress-in-south-africa-since-1994\/\">Read the original article here.<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>Read: <a href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/government\/354775\/new-plans-to-fight-crime-in-south-africa-ramaphosa\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">New plans to fight crime in South Africa: Ramaphosa<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>How has South Africa fared since its first democratic elections in 1994? That\u2019s the question a\u00a0new government report\u00a0released by the country\u2019s presidency sets out to answer.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40,"featured_media":352313,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[26],"class_list":["post-355375","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-government","tag-headline"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/355375","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/40"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=355375"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/355375\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":355395,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/355375\/revisions\/355395"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/352313"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=355375"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=355375"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=355375"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}