A South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC) report has revealed that by the second week of July, the country had recorded 17,000 excess natural deaths.<\/p>\n
This is a 59% increase compared to previous years.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe weekly death reports have revealed a huge discrepancy between the country\u2019s confirmed Covid-19 deaths and a number of excess natural deaths,\u201d said SAMRC\u2019s chief specialist scientist, professor Debbie Bradshaw said in the report.<\/p>\n
In an interview with the Department of Health, Bradshaw said the gap between the number of Covid-19 deaths and the excess deaths is mostly high in the Eastern Cape and Gauteng.<\/p>\n
\u201cExcess is the deaths that are over and above what you would expect to have. It\u2019s been used, particularly in looking at flu epidemics where there\u2019s a sudden surge in the number of deaths that\u2019s just beyond what you\u2019d expect,\u201d Bradshaw explained.<\/p>\n
There are several ways to calculate excess deaths; some analysts use the excess above the expected number based on historical data, while others take the number above a threshold such as the upper prediction bound that is significantly higher than expected.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s important for us to do more work to get some research done to find exactly what\u2019s causing that. It could be that there are people with Covid who are not getting to health facilities, thereby not getting into the statistics.<\/p>\n
\u201cPeople dying at home whether it\u2019s access to transport to get to a facility or choosing not to go to a health facility,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n
\nThis week, we speak to Professor Debbie Bradshaw, the Chief Specialist Scientist at the South African Medical Research Council, about excess natural deaths during the #COVID19<\/a> pandemic.https:\/\/t.co\/uJ1FWXKX2a<\/a><\/p>\n
\u2014 Dr Zweli Mkhize (@DrZweliMkhize) July 27, 2020<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n