South African hospitals likely under-reported the number of patients with Covid-19 and the death toll from the virus is probably much higher than the official figure, according to a study.<\/p>\n
As many as 2.8 million people out of a population of 59 million may have had the virus, and almost all of the country\u2019s 62,056 excess deaths since the beginning of the year were probably caused by the pathogen, Alex van den Heever, chair of Social Security Systems Administration and Management Studies at Johannesburg\u2019s University of the Witwatersrand said in a paper this month.<\/p>\n
His research used data to 24 October. By that date, 658,171 infections and 15,907 deaths had been confirmed by the Health Ministry.<\/p>\n
Other researchers using different methodology have come up with a lower figure of natural excess deaths, or the number of people who died this year above an historical average.<\/p>\n
They also attribute some deaths to a lack of access to medical facilities and treatment as South Africa imposed movement restrictions. Van den Heever disagrees. Peaks of new infections closely match spikes in excess death numbers, he said.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe correlation is just too close for it to be collateral deaths,\u201d he said in an interview Monday. \u201cThere is a strong possibility that they are directly linked to Covid-19. To me it would be the most probable conclusion, unless other evidence is brought to bear.\u201d<\/p>\n
Most cases<\/strong><\/p>\n South Africa has the most confirmed cases on the continent and the highest number of Covid-19 deaths, according to official figures.<\/p>\n It has carried out more than 5.1 million tests, many times more than any other country in Africa. Its official death toll, currently at over 20,000, is the world\u2019s 14th highest. Iran, which has a similar number of infections, has a death toll of about 42,000.<\/p>\n \u201cWe think that he is overstating the number of excess deaths,\u201d said Debbie Bradshaw, chief specialist scientist at the South African Medical Research Council and a co-author of the council\u2019s\u00a0weekly excess deaths report.<\/p>\n Still, \u201cwe concur with his interpretation that the temporal trend across the provinces suggests most of deaths would be Covid related,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n Bradshaw\u2019s report estimates that there have been about 50,000 excess deaths.<\/p>\n \u201cNo one can say for sure which are due to Covid,\u201d said Lwazi Manzi, spokeswoman for South African Health Minister Zweli Mkhize. \u201cWe are trying to collate all the information\u201d to make a more accurate assessment, she said.<\/p>\n A final assessment could take \u201cmany years,\u201d according to the SAMRC.<\/p>\n
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