{"id":468714,"date":"2021-02-17T10:00:57","date_gmt":"2021-02-17T08:00:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=468714"},"modified":"2021-02-17T10:00:57","modified_gmt":"2021-02-17T08:00:57","slug":"south-africa-recovered-2-million-jobs-lost-during-lockdown-but-theres-a-catch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/business\/468714\/south-africa-recovered-2-million-jobs-lost-during-lockdown-but-theres-a-catch\/","title":{"rendered":"South Africa recovered 2 million jobs lost during lockdown – but there’s a catch"},"content":{"rendered":"

South Africa’s job market has staged a significant recovery, according to the latest National Income Dynamics Coronavirus Rapid Mobile Survey (NIDS-CRAM).<\/p>\n

The NIDS-CRAM is a study conducted by a national consortium of 30 social science researchers from local universities, as well as groups like the Human Sciences Research Council and the Department of Education.<\/p>\n

The survey is a comprehensive and nationally representative survey of how the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdown impacted South African households, with a particular focus on income and employment.<\/p>\n

The first wave of the survey found that approximately 2.8 million people lost their jobs over the lockdown period, representing an 18% decline in employment from 17 million people employed in February, to 14 million people employed in April 2020.<\/p>\n

The second wave survey showed that these numbers had not changed from April to June, despite the easing of lockdown over the period.<\/p>\n

The latest survey, however, has shown a positive turn, with approximately 2.1 million jobs returned.<\/p>\n

“NIDS-CRAM Wave 3 data shows evidence of a substantial job market recovery in October 2020 compared to April (Level 5 Lockdown), and June (Level 3 Lockdown),” the researchers said.<\/p>\n

“Between February and April 2020, we had previously found a substantial increase in those who were not employed \u2013 from 43% to 52%, as well as an increase in furloughed workers. We now find that by October 2020 the percentage of people employed is much closer to its February pre-pandemic level.”<\/p>\n

The fraction of people employed, including furloughed workers, has changed from 57% (February), to 48% (April and June), to 55% in October.<\/p>\n

“While there is always a margin of error around survey estimates, and there have been some changes in the number of working age adults over the period, these results suggest a considerable recovery between June and October 2020,” they said.<\/p>\n

The catch<\/strong><\/p>\n

A notable finding from the survey is that the 2.1 million jobs recovered were not all people who were previously employed, returning to work.<\/p>\n

In fact, the researchers found that these workers only made up around half of the figure, with the rest comprising a mix of people previously unemployed before the pandemic, and new entrants into the market.<\/p>\n

This means that approximately 1.8 million previously employed people who lost their jobs over lockdown have still not recovered.<\/p>\n

“This suggests substantial churning in the labour market, which no longer looks the same as it did prior to the pandemic-inspired lockdowns,” the researchers said.<\/p>\n

The researchers also warned that the picture could have changed over the last quarter of the year, with the results from Wave 4 of NIDS-CRAM expected to shed more light on whether the recovery and adjustments to the labour market are sustained in January 2021, or whether the move to Adjusted Level 3 at the end of December 2020 compromised the upward trajectory.<\/p>\n

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Other highlights from the report include:<\/p>\n