{"id":473214,"date":"2021-03-05T07:42:59","date_gmt":"2021-03-05T05:42:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=473214"},"modified":"2021-03-05T07:52:24","modified_gmt":"2021-03-05T05:52:24","slug":"south-africas-actual-covid-19-death-rate-one-year-later","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/trending\/473214\/south-africas-actual-covid-19-death-rate-one-year-later\/","title":{"rendered":"South Africa&#8217;s &#8216;actual&#8217; Covid-19 death rate &#8211; one year later"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>On 5 March 2020, health minister Dr Zweli Mkhize briefed president Cyril Ramaphosa that South Africa had reported its first Covid-19 case.<\/p>\n<p>A year later, and the official statistics show that 1,517,666 total cases have been reported in the country, with 50,462 confirmed deaths due to the coronavirus.<\/p>\n<p>In the past month, the country has also started its vaccination efforts, with 92,029 vaccines administered to date.<\/p>\n<p>However, <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.samrc.ac.za\/sites\/default\/files\/files\/2021-03-03\/weekly27Feb2021.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">data<\/a> <\/strong>from the South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC) shows that the number of <strong>excess deaths<\/strong> in the country over the last year is much higher.<\/p>\n<p>The SAMRC&#8217;s data shows that there were more than <strong>145,000 excess deaths<\/strong> from natural causes of persons 1+ years of age by the end of 27 Feb 2021.<\/p>\n<p>The researchers estimate that between 85% -95% of these deaths are directly attributable to the Covid-19 pandemic.<\/p>\n<p>Per capita excess death rates have been calculated for the provinces to scale the cumulative deaths for the population size of each province.<\/p>\n<p>By 27 February 2021, the national excess death rate was 244 per 100,000 population.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">Exactly a year ago I had the unenvious position of briefing the President that we had our first <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/COVID19?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#COVID19<\/a> case. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MorningLiveSABC?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@MorningLiveSABC<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Dr Zweli Mkhize (@DrZweliMkhize) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DrZweliMkhize\/status\/1367698293690675200?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 5, 2021<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Deaths recorded on the National Population Register are provided to the SAMRC on a weekly basis.<\/p>\n<p>These have been scaled up to estimate the actual number of deaths by accounting for the people who are not on the population register and the under-registration of deaths.<\/p>\n<p>The estimated numbers are compared with the number that would be expected, based on the historical data from 2018 and 2019.<\/p>\n<p><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/SAMRC-1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-473224\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/SAMRC-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"900\" height=\"813\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/SAMRC-1.png 731w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/SAMRC-1-300x271.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 900px) 100vw, 900px\" \/><\/a>The provinces with the highest numbers of excess deaths at the end of Week 8 (27 Feb 2021), are KwaZulu-Natal, Eastern Cape and Gauteng.<\/p>\n<p>The ranking changes to Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal and Northern Cape for the crude death rates per capita.<\/p>\n<p>The group added that the weekly number of deaths from unnatural causes increased rapidly in Week 5 (31 January &#8211; 6 February 2021) coinciding with the relaxation of lockdown to allow the restricted sale of alcohol and reduce curfew and the anticipated month-end increase and has remained close to the predicted number through to Week 8 (21 -27 February 2021).<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>Read: <a href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/business-opinion\/472982\/economists-on-the-rand-covid-immunity-and-why-south-africas-next-ratings-downgrade-is-going-to-hurt\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Economists on the rand, Covid immunity \u2013 and why South Africa\u2019s next ratings downgrade is going to hurt<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On 5 March 2020, health minister Dr Zweli Mkhize briefed president Cyril Ramaphosa that South Africa had reported its first Covid-19 case.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":418919,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[26],"class_list":["post-473214","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-trending","tag-headline"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/473214","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=473214"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/473214\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":473240,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/473214\/revisions\/473240"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/418919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=473214"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=473214"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=473214"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}