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No more annualisation<\/strong><\/p>\n Following confusion caused by the annualisation of GDP data in 2020 – caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdown disruptions to the economy, Stats SA said it would no longer use the annualised data as the headline GDP statistic.<\/p>\n During periods of steady economic growth, annualising is a useful way of expressing quarter-on-quarter performance in annual terms, Stats SA said. However, during periods of economic instability, annualising can be misleading, because it exaggerates growth rates that are unlikely to be repeated.<\/p>\n “For example, largely as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdown regulations, real GDP contracted sharply in the second quarter of 2020 and rebounded strongly in the third quarter,” it said.<\/p>\n In future, Stats SA will publish the quarter-on-quarter real GDP growth rate (seasonally adjusted) as the headline rate – ie, the headline rate will no longer be the annualised rate.<\/p>\n “This is the practice in many countries. Supplementary growth rates, namely year-on-year growth for individual quarters and for year-to-date, will continue to be published,” it said.<\/p>\n Sector performance<\/strong><\/p>\n The manufacturing industry increased at a rate of 21.1% in the fourth quarter, contributing 2.4 percentage points to GDP growth.<\/p>\n Nine of the 10 manufacturing divisions reported positive growth rates in the fourth quarter. The four divisions with the largest contributions to the increase were:<\/p>\n The trade, catering and accommodation industry increased at a rate of 9.8%, contributing 1.3 percentage points to GDP growth. Increased economic activity was reported for retail trade, motor trade, catering and accommodation.<\/p>\n The transport, storage and communication industry increased at a rate of 6.7%, contributing 0.5 of a percentage point to GDP growth. Increased economic activity was reported for land and air transport and communication services.<\/p>\n The construction industry increased at a rate of 11.2% in the fourth quarter. Increased production was reported for residential buildings, non-residential buildings and construction works.<\/p>\n The personal services industry increased at a rate of 4.8% in the fourth quarter; increased economic activities were reported for community and other producers.<\/p>\n The agriculture, forestry and fishing industry improved at a rate of 5.9% in the fourth quarter, mainly due to increased production of animal products.<\/p>\n Industries in 2020<\/strong><\/p>\n Looking at 2020 overall, the annual real GDP decline of 7.0% was primarily led by decreases in manufacturing, which contributed -1.4 percentage points based on growth of -11.6%.<\/p>\n Trade, catering and accommodation contributed -1.3 percentage points based on growth of -9.1%; and transport, storage and communication, contributed -1.3 percentage points based on growth of -14.8%.<\/p>\n The agriculture, forestry and fishing industry increased by 13.1% in 2020<\/strong>, and general government increased by 0.7% in 2020.<\/p>\n\n
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