{"id":475990,"date":"2021-03-16T10:17:42","date_gmt":"2021-03-16T08:17:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=475990"},"modified":"2021-03-16T10:17:42","modified_gmt":"2021-03-16T08:17:42","slug":"expect-5-more-years-of-load-shedding-for-south-africa-these-charts-show-why","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/475990\/expect-5-more-years-of-load-shedding-for-south-africa-these-charts-show-why\/","title":{"rendered":"Expect 5 more years of load shedding for South Africa &#8211; these charts show why"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Eskom chief executive Andre de Ruyter has warned that South Africans can expect another five years of load shedding as the country faces a shortfall of 4,000MW.<\/p>\n<p>He added that this shortfall could increase, if the economy grows.<\/p>\n<p>De Ruyter said that this threat of disruption means that South Africa will have to accelerate the addition of new capacity to the grid, and that the shortfall could be reduced as more renewable energy options are approved.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;We all want an economy that is not constrained from growing due to a lack of available electricity generation capacity and, therefore, we believe that bringing forward new generation capacity as soon as possible will be positive for the economy and will avoid a downside risk of further shortfalls in generation capacity.&#8221;<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">South Africans should brace themselves for more load-shedding in the next 5 years. Eskom CEO Andre de Ruyter says the power utility will have a shortfall in electricity supply. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/DStv03?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#DStv03<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Eskom?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Eskom<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/LoadShedding?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#LoadShedding<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/KSbOSF5Oaf\">pic.twitter.com\/KSbOSF5Oaf<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 eNCA (@eNCA) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/eNCA\/status\/1371437261498224641?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 15, 2021<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>A report published by the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) this week shows a steady <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/475406\/south-africa-spends-10-of-the-year-load-shedding-and-it-could-get-worse\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">downward trend <\/a><\/strong>for the power utility, with 2020 the worst year on record for load shedding.<\/p>\n<p>In summary, the country has faced:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Declining energy availability over the last 5 years;<\/li>\n<li>Increased maintenance needed for ageing power stations &#8211; with breakdowns causing 21% of outages;<\/li>\n<li>A 9% reduction in energy production since 2010; and<\/li>\n<li>The worst year of load shedding in 2020, due to breakdowns.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u201cIn 2020, load shedding occurred for 859 hours of the year (9.8%) with an upper limit of 1,798 GWh relative to actually achieved energy shed of 1,269 GWh,\u201d the CSIR said.<\/p>\n<p>The most intensive load shedding was seen before the Covid-19 lockdown, which accounted for 63% of all load shedding seen in 2020. Most of this was stage 2 load shedding, the research body said.<\/p>\n<p><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/CSIR.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-475994 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/CSIR.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"861\" height=\"559\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/CSIR.jpg 1316w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/CSIR-300x195.jpg 300w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/CSIR-1024x665.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/CSIR-768x498.jpg 768w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/CSIR-1200x779.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 861px) 100vw, 861px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The group added that Eskom\u2019s power output capabilities have steadily decreased over the last three years.<\/p>\n<p>It said that Eskom\u2019s fleet had an annual average Energy Availability Factor (EAF) of 65%. In 2020, compared to 66.9% in 2019 and 71.9% in 2018. The EAF is a measure of the availability of Eskom current fleet of power stations.<\/p>\n<p>In 2020, the EAF comprised planned maintenance at 11.2% (PCLF), unplanned outages at 20.9% (UCLF) and other outages at 2.8% (OCLF).<\/p>\n<p><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/Maintenance.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter  wp-image-476178\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/Maintenance.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"790\" height=\"543\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/Maintenance.png 1028w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/Maintenance-300x206.png 300w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/Maintenance-1024x703.png 1024w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/Maintenance-768x527.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 790px) 100vw, 790px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The best hourly EAF of 78.8% was achieved on 10 Jun 2020 and worst of 51.7% on 31 Dec 2020, the CSIR said.<\/p>\n<p><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/CSIR-2.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-476070 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/CSIR-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"812\" height=\"572\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/CSIR-2.png 997w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/CSIR-2-300x211.png 300w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/CSIR-2-768x541.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 812px) 100vw, 812px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The CSIR&#8217;s data shows that between January-December 2020, 221 TWh of net electricity was produced in South Africa.<\/p>\n<p>Coal dominated the energy mix at 184 TWh of the 221 TWh of total system load whilst photovoltaic, wind and concentrated solar power contributed 12.4 TWh.<\/p>\n<p>However, the report shows that production has dropped by 4.3% in the 10 years between 2010-2019, and by 8.8% between 2010-2020 resulting in annual average reductions of 0.5% (2010-2019) and 0.9% (2010-2020).<\/p>\n<p>Annual peak demand has also declined over the last 10 years.<\/p>\n<p><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/CSIR-3.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-476072 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/CSIR-3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"874\" height=\"600\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/CSIR-3.png 1017w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/CSIR-3-300x206.png 300w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/CSIR-3-768x527.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 874px) 100vw, 874px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>While De Ruyter has committed to turning Eskom around, the power cuts are particularly frustrating amid what appear to be shifting goalposts.<\/p>\n<p>In 2015, former president Jacob Zuma said that load shedding is likely to last for <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/government\/88580\/3-more-years-of-load-shedding-zuma\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">three more years<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0(to 2018), after government completed a medium-term outlook model for the supply and demand of electricity in the country.<\/p>\n<p>In September 2020, Deputy President David Mabuza said that the introduction of the <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/431238\/new-power-plants-will-help-with-south-africas-load-shedding-deputy-president\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Medupi and Kusile power plants<\/a><\/strong> to South Africa\u2019s electricity grid will help ease the country\u2019s load shedding by the end of that year.<\/p>\n<p>A month later De Ruyter indicated that load shedding would only be &#8216;significantly reduced&#8217; towards the <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/439293\/load-shedding-will-be-significantly-reduced-by-this-time-next-year-eskom-ceo\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">end of 2021<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>This week, Eskom chief operating officer Jan Oberholzer said\u00a0that grid stability will only be attained once planned maintenance regime is completed in September 2021. But De Ruyter says load shedding will still be around for the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>Read: <a href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/energy\/475840\/code-red-at-eskom-for-the-next-6-weeks-expert\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u2018Code red\u2019 at Eskom for the next 6 weeks: expert<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Eskom estimates that, without additional capacity, there will be an electricity supply shortfall of between 4,000 and 6,000 megawatts over the next five years, as old coal-fired power stations reach their end of life.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":299752,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9874],"tags":[26],"class_list":["post-475990","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-headline"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/475990","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=475990"}],"version-history":[{"count":22,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/475990\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":476180,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/475990\/revisions\/476180"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/299752"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=475990"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=475990"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=475990"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}