Most South Africans are likely under the impression that the country’s death rate from Covid-19 is around 50,000 people. But it is likely triple this amount based on South African Medical Research Council modelling, says professor Shabir Madhi.<\/p>\n
Madhi, a professor of vaccinology at the University of the Witwatersrand and director of the Medical Research Council Vaccines and Infectious Diseases Analytics Research Unit (VIDA), was a guest on PSG\u2019s latest Think Big<\/em> webinar on Tuesday<\/a>.<\/p>\n He told viewers that the official figures are a vast underestimation of reality. Along with other scientists, professor Madhi looks, instead, at excess mortality figures. \u201cSouth Africa\u2019s excess mortality indicates that more than 150,000 people have likely died from Covid-19,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Even if one assumes that only 70% of our excess mortality is due to Covid-19, which would be conservative, South Africa still ranks 11th\u00a0globally with a mortality rate that is higher than Spain, Italy, the UK and even the US. \u201cThis shows how potent the virus is, and how unsuccessful our efforts to contain it have been,\u201d Madhi said.<\/p>\n \u201cThese figures show how urgently South Africa needs to start vaccinating high-risk individuals,” said Janine Johannes, head of group human resources at PSG, who hosted the event.<\/p>\n The government has put its trial of the Johnson & Johnson vaccination on hold due to a small number of instances where vaccine recipients experienced a rare type of blood clot.<\/p>\n Discussing these issues, professor Madhi said that it\u2019s difficult to ascertain who is most at risk, and AstraZeneca and Pfizer probably have had similar rates of the described rare side effects. Those affected range from 4-5 individuals per million.<\/p>\n Mortality rates since the pandemic began in South Africa are at 1,800 of every million, assuming only 70% of excess mortality is due to Covid-19. The risk of dying from Covid-19 is nowhere near the risks of the rare occurrence of blood clots from the vaccines.<\/p>\n \u201cIn South Africa, we unfortunately don\u2019t have the same luxuries as countries like the US, who can afford to pause a vaccine while another one fills the gap. The lesson here is to truly consider the benefit\/risk ratio before taking such a decision,” professor Madhi said.<\/p>\n \u00a0<\/strong>Of variants and vaccines<\/strong><\/p>\n Covid-19 has further mutated into powerful new variants. \u201cUntil November last year none of the models predicted that there would be significant mutations that would change the trajectory of the pandemic,\u201d said Madhi.<\/p>\n Both the UK\u2019s B117 variant and South Africa\u2019s B1351 variant have an important mutation that makes the virus both more transmissible and more virulent in that once infected, you are more likely to end up in hospital or even die.<\/p>\n To put it in numbers, these variants are about 53% more transmissible and 1.4 to 1.6 times more virulent than the original virus.<\/p>\n South Africa\u2019s B1351 variant has additional mutations that make it relatively resistant to the antibody produced by past infection. \u201cTherefore, the strategy of allowing the population to get to natural immunity by allowing people to contract the virus, won\u2019t work.\u00a0 Covid-19 simply begins to target that immunity with new mutations.\u201d<\/p>\n The B1351 variant is also relatively resistant to many of the first\u00a0generation vaccines that target the spike protein. This is especially true for mild to moderate infections.<\/p>\n However, these vaccines will probably be effective against severe disease, and for this reason professor Madhi is critical of the government\u2019s decision to sell on the AstraZeneca vaccines it acquired earlier this year.<\/p>\n While that vaccine is not very effective against mild to moderate disease caused by the South African variant, it is very likely to protect against severe disease, as suggested by the World Health Organisation and the scientific experts that inform it.<\/p>\n \u201cSelling our AstraZeneca vaccines was a miscalculation by our government; one that has set us back by several months in terms of our vaccination rollout,\u201d Madhi said.<\/p>\n SA vaccination plans<\/strong><\/p>\n Health minister, Dr Zweli Mkhize, said Monday (19 April), that the government is hoping to inoculate 46.2 million South Africans by March 2022.<\/p>\n However, this is provided the country receives the millions of vaccines that the nation has secured from drug makers.<\/p>\n \u201cThis tally excludes the 500,000 that will be vaccinated under the Sisonke Protocol. We are also hopeful that COVAX will be able to deliver 1.2 million doses this quarter,\u201d the minister said.<\/p>\n South Africa is expecting 31,200,000 Johnson & Johnson jabs and 30,002,310 batches of the Pfizer vaccine which will be delivered in phases.<\/p>\n #COVID19<\/a> Statistics in SA as at 19 April.<\/p>\n Use the COVID Alert SA app to protect yourself, your loved ones and your community. Start using this privacy preserving app today. Add your phone to the fight! Download the Covid Alert SA app now! https:\/\/t.co\/8YKEqa0Ht5<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/6rddVr7geH<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Dr Zweli Mkhize (@DrZweliMkhize) April 19, 2021<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n