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<\/a>The baseline<\/strong> GDP scenario for this year is based on expectations of an adjusted level 3 lockdown (3 lite) in July to help combat the rising third wave of Covid-19 infections.<\/p>\nWhile a subsequent easing in restrictions is expected as the winter thaws in August and September, South Africa is anticipated to remain in level 1 lockdown from September towards year-end.<\/p>\n
This scenario sees the economy growing by 3.7% in 2021.<\/p>\n
The forecast also includes an assumption of continued electricity load shedding akin to the 2020 norm.<\/p>\n
The upside<\/strong> scenario<\/strong> sees fewer days of load shedding for the remainder of the year, a less strict lockdown during winter due to vaccination successes, and a complete lockdown exit from September. This would see the economy grow by 5.9% this year.<\/p>\n In turn, the downside<\/strong> scenario<\/strong> assumes a more severe infection level during the third wave and no exit from the lockdown until 2022. An economic growth rate of only 1.3% is linked to this scenario.<\/p>\n Return to normal by 2023<\/strong><\/p>\n Based on its forecasts, PwC expects GDP to return to the pre-pandemic levels by 2023.<\/p>\n The group said that this could happen sooner under the upside scenario, though at the same time a sluggish recovery under the downside scenario could see the timeline extended to 2027.<\/p>\n “Amongst the alternative alternatives, we currently see the downside scenario as slightly more likely than the upside narrative. It is important to keep in mind that South Africa’s real GDP per capita was in decline before Covid-19, and dropped by 8.3% last year.<\/p>\n “Based on our GDP and population growth expectations, real GDP per capita will only return to 2019 levels by 2028.”<\/p>\n Total employment fell to 2011 levels during the depths of the Q2 2020 lockdown and \u2018recovered\u2019 to 2014 levels by Q1 2021.<\/p>\n However, the number of jobs in the country by March 2021 was only at 91% of the end-2019 period.<\/p>\n “We estimate that, by the end of this year, total employment should be at a similar level to that seen in 2015. Our economic forecasts suggest South Africa will recover 444,710 jobs in 2021.<\/p>\n “By our estimates, this number could have been closer to 650,000 were it not for the adverse impact of electricity load shedding,” PwC said.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n