South Africa’s latest lockdown extension was an inevitability with no sign of a peak in Covid-19 cases seen, say economists from the Bureau for Economic Research (BER).<\/p>\n
While the extension was largely expected, it will still come at a great cost to the economy, and the third wave and the associated restrictions will be a big drag on Q3 2021 GDP, the group said in a research note on Monday (12 July).<\/p>\n
“The adjusted level 4 lockdown extension came amid no conclusive signs of a peak in the damaging third wave of Covid-19 infections.<\/p>\n
“While it seems that the devastating third wave in Gauteng has peaked, several other provinces continue to see cases move higher. Therefore, an extension of at least some of the harsher restrictions was almost inevitable.”<\/p>\n
The data up to Sunday shows that the seven-day rolling average of new country-wide Covid-19 cases stands at 19,000 – on Wednesday it reached almost 20,000.<\/p>\n
The seven-day average was about 15,500 when Ramaphosa first announced the move to adjusted level 4 on 27 June, the BER said.<\/p>\n
While the restrictions will continue to impact some businesses, the\u00a0BER said that the easing of restrictions for the hospitality sector will be welcome news – especially the scrapping of the ban on indoor dining.<\/p>\n
Restaurants and eateries will be allowed to fully operate again, albeit with a limit of 50 people at a time.<\/p>\n
“While this throws a lifeline to restaurants, with the country still in the grip of the third wave, it remains to be seen how much trading will take place in the foreseeable future as consumers may be cautious to go out for a sit-down meal.<\/p>\n
“In addition, the strict curfew and ban on liquor sales will continue to hurt the hospitality trade.”<\/p>\n
Good news on vaccines<\/strong><\/p>\n In more positive Covid-related news, the local vaccine rollout continues to gather momentum, the BER said.<\/p>\n Between Monday and Friday last week, vaccinations averaged about 185,000 per day, up from almost 114,000 the previous week.<\/p>\n On Friday, the Department of Health announced that the programme will be expanded further. Persons aged 35 to 49 will be able to register to be vaccinated from 15 July, with vaccinations for this age cohort to start from 1 August.<\/p>\n “A major critique against the vaccination programme has been the paltry pace of inoculations over weekends,” the BER said. “Processes have now been put in place to ensure that from the start of August, a higher pace of vaccinations will be possible for seven days a week.<\/p>\n “This is most welcome and, depending on vaccine availability, will contribute to curb the impact of a possible fourth wave of Covid-19 infections later in the year,” it said.<\/p>\n
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