{"id":506626,"date":"2021-07-16T16:44:09","date_gmt":"2021-07-16T14:44:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=506626"},"modified":"2021-07-16T16:44:09","modified_gmt":"2021-07-16T14:44:09","slug":"3-lockdown-scenarios-for-south-africa-and-where-things-are-heading-right-now","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/government\/506626\/3-lockdown-scenarios-for-south-africa-and-where-things-are-heading-right-now\/","title":{"rendered":"3 lockdown scenarios for South Africa \u2013 and where things are heading right now"},"content":{"rendered":"

Professional services firm PwC has published a new economic outlook which includes forecast scenarios for South Africa\u2019s lockdown levels, and their likely impact on the economy.<\/p>\n

The report, published as the country ends a violent week of protests and looting, focuses on both upside and downside scenarios, and includes a baseline assumption.<\/p>\n

PwC\u2019s economic scenarios for 2021 are strongly influenced by different perspectives about the third wave of Covid-19 infections.<\/p>\n

The severity of the mid-year wave, and the accompanying strictness of associated lockdowns, is primarily determining the nature of the economic recovery.<\/p>\n

In addition, the economic forecasts also consider the adverse effect of unrest and load-shedding, as well as the positive impacts of fiscal and monetary stimulus on the economy.<\/p>\n

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Where things are heading<\/strong><\/p>\n

It was previously expected that, with the vaccine rollout gaining some momentum, South Africa would be able to avoid a return to level 4 lockdown restrictions.<\/p>\n

However, due to social distancing fatigue, the more infectious Delta variant of the virus, and only 2.3% of adults fully vaccinated, the third wave of infection is currently worse than previously anticipated \u2013 and in particular within Gauteng.<\/p>\n

“It is worth noting that the current level 4 restrictions are less strenuous compared to the rules enforced during May last year when level 4 was introduced. We estimate that the negative impact of current level 4 restrictions on the economy is only two-thirds as severe as last year\u2019s original level 4 rules,” PwC said.<\/p>\n

PwC’s scenarios assume that lockdown restrictions will ease from August, although they will remain a burden on the economic recovery.<\/p>\n

“The country is expected to be back at lockdown level 1 by September under our baseline scenario as the third wave passes \u2013 thought we are also vigilant about the risk of a fourth (less severe) wave over the December holidays.”<\/p>\n

Combined with other considerations, this outlook would result in an economic growth rate of 2.3% this year. The estimate is 1.4 percentage points lower than what was projected a month ago.<\/p>\n

PwC said that the key factors behind this big change are:<\/p>\n