{"id":512432,"date":"2021-08-11T16:12:46","date_gmt":"2021-08-11T14:12:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=512432"},"modified":"2021-08-12T10:19:13","modified_gmt":"2021-08-12T08:19:13","slug":"3-lockdown-scenarios-for-south-africa-including-a-fourth-wave-over-christmas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/lifestyle\/512432\/3-lockdown-scenarios-for-south-africa-including-a-fourth-wave-over-christmas\/","title":{"rendered":"3 lockdown scenarios for South Africa \u2013 including a fourth wave over Christmas"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Professional services firm PwC has published its latest economic outlook for South Africa, which includes forecast scenarios for the country&#8217;s lockdown levels and their likely impact on the economy.<\/p>\n<p>The group&#8217;s economic scenarios for 2021 are strongly influenced by different perspectives about the third wave of Covid-19 infections.<\/p>\n<p>On 27 June, president Cyril Ramaphosa announced a move to lockdown level 4 which included the banning of alcohol sales, social gatherings (excluding funerals), and leisure travel to and from Gauteng.<\/p>\n<p>These were relaxed on 27 July as the country moved to lockdown level 3.<\/p>\n<p>PwC compiled three scenarios for how South Africa&#8217;s lockdown levels could move until the end of the year. Both PwC&#8217;s baseline and downside assumptions consider a <strong>likely fourth wave<\/strong> of infections starting around the December holidays.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Baseline scenario<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Level 3 &#8216;lite&#8217; lockdown to be in place for the rest of August as Covid-19 numbers improve.<\/li>\n<li>Level 1 in September as the third wave infections taper out, continued through October and November.<\/li>\n<li>Level 2 lockdown in December as infections start to rise, starting the fourth wave.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Downside scenario<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Level 3 &#8216;lite&#8217; lockdown to mid-August with the possibility of more restrictions being added if infection numbers do not improve.<\/li>\n<li>Level 2 lockdown in September and October.<\/li>\n<li>Level 1 lockdown in November provides a brief reprieve.<\/li>\n<li>Level 2 lockdown in December as infections start to rise, starting the fourth wave.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Upside scenario<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Level 2 lockdown as early as mid-August as numbers improve.<\/li>\n<li>Level 1 in September as third wave infections taper out, continuing to October.<\/li>\n<li>No restrictions in November.<\/li>\n<li>Level 1 re-introduced in December as a precautionary move to delay the fourth wave.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a  data-lightbox=\"post-image\" href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/PwC-4.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-512438 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/PwC-4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"490\" height=\"724\" srcset=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/PwC-4.png 490w, https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/PwC-4-203x300.png 203w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 490px) 100vw, 490px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>In addition to lockdown considerations, PwC&#8217;s economic forecasts also take into account the positive impacts of fiscal and monetary stimulus.<\/p>\n<p>Former finance minister Tito Mboweni announced on 29 July that the government is planning a R38.9 billion support package and that this will include R5 billion in revenue measures and spending of R33.9 billion.<\/p>\n<p>The package will be funded by better-than-expected fiscal revenues and will not need additional borrowing by the state.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Key priorities include reinstatement of the R350 a month social relief grant until March 2022 (at a total cost of R26.7 billion), R2.3 billion to support businesses not covered by insurance for civil unrest, and R5 billion in incentives to encourage employers to hire and retain staff,&#8221; PwC said.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The reintroduced R350 payment over an extended period is seen by some analysts as an initial phase of what will eventually become a basic income grant.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>To estimate the overall economic impact of these different factors, an Economic Impact Assessment (EIA) scenario tool was developed. PwC used a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) methodology to estimate how lockdown restrictions affect the interaction of various sectors of the economy.<\/p>\n<p>This scenario tool helps detail the direct, indirect and induced impacts of this specific shock on the economy.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>Read: <a href=\"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/finance\/512340\/new-retirement-changes-in-the-works-for-south-africa-and-they-could-be-in-effect-as-early-as-2022\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">New retirement changes in the works for South Africa \u2013 and they could be in effect as early as 2022<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Professional services firm PwC has published its latest economic outlook for South Africa, which includes forecast scenarios for the country&#8217;s lockdown levels and their likely impact on the economy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":384181,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9876],"tags":[26,2407],"class_list":["post-512432","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-lifestyle","tag-headline","tag-pwc"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/512432","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=512432"}],"version-history":[{"count":13,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/512432\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":512562,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/512432\/revisions\/512562"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/384181"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=512432"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=512432"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=512432"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}