{"id":513638,"date":"2021-08-17T12:54:17","date_gmt":"2021-08-17T10:54:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/?p=513638"},"modified":"2021-08-17T12:54:17","modified_gmt":"2021-08-17T10:54:17","slug":"when-the-fourth-covid-19-wave-is-expected-to-hit-south-africa-expert","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/businesstech.co.za\/news\/trending\/513638\/when-the-fourth-covid-19-wave-is-expected-to-hit-south-africa-expert\/","title":{"rendered":"When the fourth Covid-19 wave is expected to hit South Africa: expert"},"content":{"rendered":"

A fourth wave of Covid-19 infections is set to hit South Africa at the beginning of December, says a leading health expert.<\/p>\n

Salim Abdool Karim, former chairman of the government\u2019s ministerial advisory committee on Covid-19, told Bloomberg that the current estimates show the fourth wave starting on 2 December and will last about 75 days.<\/p>\n

The government assumes that the wave will follow a similar pattern to the current one and that there will be a new variant by then, he said at a Government Technical Advisory Centre conference. Data suggest the current wave will end around 26 August.<\/p>\n

South Africa could open registrations to allow people aged between 18 and 34 to get vaccinated as early as this week, said health minister Joe Phaahla.<\/p>\n

If the decision is made it would bring forward an earlier plan to allow that age group to begin registering on 1 September. The matter has been raised with the nation\u2019s cabinet.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe are in further consultations with our leadership in cabinet, (and) we will probably before the end of this week open for all adults above 18,\u201d he told\u00a0702<\/a><\/strong>. \u201cIf not this week, then not later than next Monday (23 August) for all adults.\u201d<\/p>\n

Phaahla added that his department would not recommend relaxing the country\u2019s lockdown restrictions due to the high number of Covid-19 cases.<\/p>\n

He said that the pressure on hospitals should ease if the average number of cases falls below 10,000 a day with a positivity rate of around 10% in the next week or two.<\/p>\n

However, he said that the Covid-19 numbers don\u2019t support the relaxation of restrictions this week.<\/p>\n

On Monday (16 August), South Africa reported 7,983 new cases of Covid-19, taking the total reported to 2,613,569.<\/p>\n

Deaths have reached 77,440, while recoveries have climbed to 2382809, leaving the country with a balance of 153,320 active cases. The total number of vaccines administered is 9,557,542.<\/p>\n

Three scenarios<\/strong><\/p>\n

A report published by professional services firm PwC this week shows three scenarios for how South Africa\u2019s lockdown levels could move until the end of the year.<\/p>\n

Both PwC\u2019s baseline and downside assumptions consider a likely fourth wave<\/strong>\u00a0of infections starting around the December holidays.<\/p>\n

Baseline scenario<\/strong><\/p>\n